Looking across diverse food system futures: Implications for climate change and the environment

Abstract

Agriculture and food systems are in urgent need of transformation. Various foresight reports unpack food systems’ challenges and propose diverse pathways of change towards sustainability. We interrogate the framings and proposed pathways of eleven selected reports from a food system perspective, with a focus on environmental and climate change implications. We synthesize key drivers of food systems and their impact on food system outcomes. We distil trends and strategies identified across the reports and their scenarios and discuss the diversity of ‘sustainability pathways’ and ‘solution spaces’. There is general agreement that resource protection and adaptation balanced with significant greenhouse gas emission reductions are vital to food system transformation. There is less consensus on the choice of change options and how to address potential trade-offs. While new technologies or consumption changes are described, more attention needs to be paid to overcoming blind spots like implications for equity or changes in governance mechanisms.

A Sustainability Compass for policy navigation to sustainable food systems

“…However, Brouwer et al (2020) note that the relevance of existing frameworks to assessing trade-offs is limited, as they often assess value-chain sustainability. Identification of trade-offs in food systems is paramount, as they are considered a major sustainability challenge for future food systems ( Zurek et al, 2021 ). Here, we review existing frameworks to be able to build on and complement them.…”

“…The design of the framework is flexible to incorporate newly generated insights on scientific evidence or negotiated sustainability dimensions of weighting. A further development to increase its policy use, is to enable the compass to simulate or visualize how the introduction of different innovations ( Herrero et al, 2021 ; Klerkx and Begemann, 2020 ; Zurek et al, 2021 ) can change the states of areas of concern, thus allowing a comparison between (possible) effects the directionality of change of diverse innovation options.…”

“…Food system sustainability frameworks are often designed to shed light on such complex dynamics in food systems and to facilitate the informed dialogue and negotiation necessary for the design of integrated food policies ( Weaver and Jordan, 2008 ). Given the plurality of perspectives to achieving transformation in food systems ( Béné et al, 2019b ; Herrero et al, 2020 , 2021 ; Klerkx and Begemann, 2020 ; Klerkx and Rose, 2020 ; Leach et al, 2020 ; Loboguerrero et al, 2020 ; Rose et al, 2021 ) and the growing urgency to manage trade-offs ( Oliver et al, 2018 ; Zurek et al, 2021 ), it is vital that such frameworks accommodate evaluation of ‘directionality’ and ‘reflexivity’ ( Kugelberg et al, 2021 ; TEEB 2018 ) to support decision making for equitable sustainability strategies ( Leach et al, 2010 ; Patterson et al, 2017 ). Interest to design sustainability policies for food systems continues to grow among actors representing countries and regions ( Global Alliance for the Future of Food, 2021 ; Global Panel, 2020 ; IPES-Food and ETC Group, 2021 ; UN Food Systems Summit, 2021 ).…”

“…Second, frameworks should facilitate ‘boundary-spanning’ activities that allow for multi-actor deliberation towards a ‘shared vision’ ( Termeer et al, 2018 ; Weber and Rohracher, 2012 ). Considered vital for food system assessment frameworks is the ability to provide insights on trade-offs between policy goals to decision makers ( Brouwer et al, 2020 ; Zurek et al, 2021 ). Although various sustainability-oriented food system frameworks exist, they generally lack one or more important aspect of sustainability, such as equity considerations ( Jones et al, 2016 ; Mertens et al, 2017 ; Stefanovic et al, 2020 ).…”

Innovate or Perish: Food Policy Design in an Indigenous Context in a Post-Pandemic and Climate Adaptation Era

“…The Latin American region is currently facing a double risk of morbidity and mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the variants of this virus that have emerged [34]. On the other hand, climatic events are affecting local food systems [35][36][37]. This dynamic of change not only affects the Latin American region but will spread throughout the world if our societies are not transformed [38].…”