Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran

Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham; Azareh, Ali; Shooshtari, Sharif Joorabian; Parteli, Eric J. R.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109934

Cited by 49 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The future application of our model might offer a useful tool, for instance, in the evaluation of different measures for groundwater control and management at regional scale, and to evaluate the impact of changes in climate, soil and land use on groundwater contamination processes (Rafiei- Sardooi et al 2022).…”

Section: Evaluating Groundwater Contamination Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments

Rafiei-Sardooi

Ghazanfarpour

Azareh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Groundwater contamination risk mapping is one essential measure in groundwater management and quality control. The purpose of the present study is to address this mapping by means of a novel framework, which is more suitable for arid regions than other methods developed in previous work. Specifically, we integrate machine learning tools, interpolation and process-based models with a modified version of DRASTIC-AHP to evaluate groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination and to map this contamination in Jiroft plain, Iran. The DRASTIC model provides a tool for evaluating aquifer vulnerability by using seven parameters related to the hydrogeological setting (Depth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic Conductivity), while the criteria ratings and weights of these parameters are evaluated by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). However, to obtain the risk map, the results about groundwater vulnerability are combined here with a contamination hazard map, which we estimate by applying ensemble modeling based, in part, on the occurrence probability predicted from Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Our integrated modeling framework provides an assessment of both regional patterns of groundwater contamination and an estimate of the impacts of the contamination based on socio-environmental variables, and is particularly suitable for applications based on limited amount of available data. The groundwater contamination risk map obtained from our case study shows that the central and southern regions of the Jiroft plain display high and very high contamination risk, which is associated with high production rate of urban waste in residential lands and an overuse of nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural lands. Therefore, our work is providing new modeling insights for the future assessment of groundwater contamination, with potential impacts for the management and control of water resources in arid and semi-arid environments.

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Section: Evaluating Groundwater Contamination Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments

Rafiei-Sardooi

Ghazanfarpour

Azareh

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…This country is severely vulnerable to climate change, with vast areas of arid and semi-arid lands, fragile mountainous ecosystems and an economy that is heavily dependent on the production, processing and sale of fossil fuels. In recent years, water scarcity has increased due to land use and climate change, particularly in arid or semi-arid areas (Rafiei-Sardooi, Azareh et al, 2022). As such, Iran is facing severe challenges in the water sector.…”

Section: Toward Green Eco Smart New Townsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing New Town Development in Iran:

Basirat

Arbab

2022

IRSPSD International

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The new town movement is an integral part of post-World War II reconstruction that has gradually been adopted worldwide. As one of the most significant fields of urban development practitioners, new towns generated both high enthusiasm and considerable criticism as consequences fell short of ideals over time. Along with the renewed interest in the new town concept, particularly in Asia and Africa, a new round of research has evaluated such initiatives. With increasing urbanisation and diminishing quality of urban life, many developing countries have introduced this policy for decongesting metropolises and stimulating economic growth. Accordingly, new town development has recently attracted urban planners, developers and politicians in emerging economies and appeared as a critical research area in urban studies. Through leading national policies to cope with housing needs and unplanned settlements in Iran, the first generation of new towns returned after the revolution in 1979. Since then, 17 new towns have been developed, which face various challenges, such as a strong dependency on metropolises and a lack of required infrastructure and facilities. Hence, as a new problem instead of a solution, Iranian new town development has been criticised from different aspects, which are systematically analysed in this paper. Analysing the first generation of new towns in Iran and conceptualising the second ones indicate an inevitable necessity for a review and substantial change regarding this policy. Therefore, key recommendations have been formulated and proposed for evolving the first and planning the second generation of new towns in Iran.

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“…Obtaining the dynamic evolution and spatial difference of spatial patterns [21,22] and using FRAGSTATS software to calculate the landscape pattern index to describe landscape evolution is also an important part [22][23][24]. The ecological and environmental effects of LUCC emphasize the impacts of land use change on climate, resource use, ecosystem services, and their value [25][26][27]. Artificial land use and land cover change often pose a serious threat to ecological security [28,29]; for example, it can lead to intensified landscape fragmentation, reduced connectivity of landscape patterns, and increased ecological risk levels of landscapes, resulting in adverse consequences, such as ecosystem function degradation and biodiversity loss [30,31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Zhang

Yao

Jun

et al. 2022

Land

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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has revealed that it is necessary to strengthen research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) and ecological risk in key regions of countries around the world. In this study, the spatiotemporal characteristics of LUCC in the five capitals of Central Asian countries within the BRI were analyzed. Based on the grid scale, a landscape pattern index was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the landscape ecological risk levels of the five capitals. The results showed the following: first, the components of land use types in the five capitals have different structural characteristics, which are mainly grassland, unused land, and cultivated land. The landscape types that changed significantly were water and unused land, while the construction land area showed a trend of continuous increase. Second, different capitals have different land-use transfer patterns. Akmola State is mainly converted from cultivated land to grassland; Chuy State is mainly converted from forest land to grassland; Dushanbe and Tashkent City are mainly converted from grassland to forestland; and Ahal State is mainly converted from grassland to unused land. Third, the overall landscape ecological risks of the five capitals were low. Akmola State had the largest proportion of lowest ecological risk areas, whereas Chuy State and Dushanbe City had an increasing trend of highest ecological risk areas. The level of ecological risk in Tashkent remained stable during the study period, and the highest ecological risk areas in Ahal State decreased to 49,227.86 km2. This study has enriched the research results of land use change and landscape ecological risk assessment of countries within the BRI and can provide a research reference for these countries and regions to achieve ecological sustainable development and strengthen ecosystem management.

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Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran

Cited by 49 publications

References 78 publications

An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments

An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments

Analysing New Town Development in Iran:

Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries

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