Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Introduction The health impacts of global climate change mitigation will affect local populations differently. We aimed to quantify the local health impacts due to fine particles (PM 2.5 ) under the governance arrangements embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs1-5) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) in local populations of Mozambique, India, and Spain. Methods We simulated the SSP-RCP scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was linked to the TM5-FASST model to estimate PM 2.5 levels. PM 2.5 levels were calibrated with local measurements. We used comparative risk assessment methods to estimate attributable premature deaths due to PM 2.5 linking local population and mortality data with PM 2.5 -mortality relationships from the literature. We incorporated population projections under the SSPs in sensitivity analysis. Results PM 2.5 attributable burdens in 2050 differed across SSP-RCP scenarios, and scenariosensitivity varied across populations. Future attributable mortality burden of PM 2.5 was highly sensitive to assumptions about how populations will change according to SSP. SSPs reflecting high challenges for adaptation (SSPs 3 and 4) consistently resulted in the highest PM 2.5 attributable burdens mid-century. Discussion Our analysis of local PM 2.5 attributable premature deaths under SSP-RCP scenarios in three local populations highlights the importance of both socioeconomic development and climate policy in reducing the health burden from air pollution. Sensitivity of future PM 2.5 mortality burden to SSPs was particularly evident in low-and midlle-income country settings due either to high air pollution levels or dynamic populations.

Evaluating the impact of free trade zone construction on urban air pollution in China—Empirical evidence from a spatial differences-in-differences approach

“…The average annual PM2.5 pollution level in Chinese cities across the country was greater than 30 μg/m3, until 2019, there were still more than 100 cities with severe pollution ( >35 μg/m3). Air pollution not only seriously impedes the high-quality economic development, but also has a substantial adverse impact on the physical and mental health of Chinese residents (Ingole et al, 2022). If air pollution is not controlled, PM2.5 pollution might cost China 2.0% of GDP, 210 billion Yuan in health spending, and one trillion Yuan in Value of Statistical Lives (VSL) by 2030.…”