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Abstract: Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives… Show more

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“…Climate mitigation scenarios assume large increases in biomass yields, from 190 to 500 GJ ha À1 a À1 between 2010 and 2050 in the case of the IEA [46], which can also reduce ecosystem impacts of land occupation. Integrated land use modelling indicates that such yield increases might result from a dedicated policy of protecting natural landscapes, whether it is for preserving carbon storage on land through land carbon pricing [47] or for protecting ecosystems [48]. However, without such policies, economics favors expanded over intensive land use, which our results indicate would have an adverse ecological impact.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
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“…Climate mitigation scenarios assume large increases in biomass yields, from 190 to 500 GJ ha À1 a À1 between 2010 and 2050 in the case of the IEA [46], which can also reduce ecosystem impacts of land occupation. Integrated land use modelling indicates that such yield increases might result from a dedicated policy of protecting natural landscapes, whether it is for preserving carbon storage on land through land carbon pricing [47] or for protecting ecosystems [48]. However, without such policies, economics favors expanded over intensive land use, which our results indicate would have an adverse ecological impact.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
“…After termination of SRM, most of the carbon stored was quickly released back to the atmosphere, resulting from enhanced respiration in response to the rapid warming after termination known from earlier studies [Matthews and Caldeira, 2007]. Large-scale afforestation generated a substantial [Ilyina et al, 2013;Humpenöder et al, 2014Humpenöder et al, , 2015Moosdorf et al, 2014;Aswathy et al, 2015;Mengis et al, 2015Mengis et al, , 2016Saxler et al, 2015;Bonsch et al, 2016;Sonntag et al, 2016 in addition to references cited elsewhere in the paper], all provided in the reference list of this article.…”
Section: Key Findings Of the First Phase Of The Priority Programmentioning
“…Structurally, the next evolution came with version 3 introducing the concept of modules, allowing to split the code into thematic components and to have different realizations of the same component. Content-related extensions in version 3 were the introduction of afforestation as a climate mitigation measure that is endogenously calculated and incentivized by a tax on GHG emissions (Humpenöder et al, 2015(Humpenöder et al, , 2014, the endogenous simulation of future pasture area driven by feed demand and opportunity costs of grazing land (Popp et al, 2014), and dynamic feed baskets where feed efficiency and feed composition depend on livestock productivity trajectories (Weindl et al, 2017a, b). Model capacities with regard to agricultural water use were further improved by the inclusion of annual costs for irrigation (e.g.…”
Section: A Brief History Of Magpiementioning