Lake Victoria water levels declining (2000-2006): the role of absent and uncertain data in a transboundary water controversy

Abstract

Access to accurate and trusted data for transboundary water management is important but not always sufficiently appreciated. Based on the Lake Victoria water levels decline, this technical note demonstrates that when a water crisis unfolds, tensions can arise because of absence of relevant data and uncertainty over data that are available. These may hamper the process towards agreeing on actions to be taken, thus delaying crisis resolution. This technical note demonstrates the importance of reliable data in a sensitive transboundary water situation. Countries therefore should allocate sufficient resources for adequately monitoring the state of transboundary water resources within their territories.

A Flexible Framework for Simulating the Water Balance of Lakes and Reservoirs From Local to Global Scales: mizuRoute‐Lake

“…Many studies have attempted to explain lake level fluctuations through detailed evaluations of water balance components of Lake Victoria (refer to Yin & Nicholson, 1998; Sene, 2000; Vanderkelen et al., 2018; Pietroiusti et al., 2024). Modeling the Lake Victoria water balance is challenging due to (a) a lack of comprehensive rainfall data on the lake (estimated to contribute up to 85% of lake input fluxes Kipyegon Bosuben et al., 2022), (b) a lack of upstream discharge measurements from the many tributaries to Lake Victoria to estimate lake inflows, (c) a lack of data to validate and estimate evaporation from the lake surface, and (d) human activities to regulate lake outflow at the dam, which transformed Lake Victoria from a natural lake to a very large reservoir.…”

“…For the years 2004 and 2005, the lake level dropped to historically low values. This lake level drop is attributed equally to reduced precipitation over the lake and excess outflow at the dam, potentially driven by increased hydropower demand (Kipyegon Bosuben et al., 2022; Vanderkelen et al., 2018). There are no lake outflow observations publicly available, which makes it challenging to estimate the relationship between lake level and outflow from the lake post‐2000.…”

Developing a High-Resolution Seamless Surface Water Extent Time-Series over Lake Victoria by Integrating MODIS and Landsat Data

“…It plays an important role in regional sustainable development and in the protection of the ecological environment [4,5]. In recent years, Lake Victoria has undergone unprecedented changes that have remarkably impacted livelihoods in the region, giving rise to considerable hydrological, ecological, and environmental concerns [6][7][8][9]. Detailed knowledge of the surface water extent (SWE) and its spatio-temporal dynamics is extremely crucial for coastal water management, flood hazard assessment, and the ecological conservation of Lake Victoria [10][11][12].…”