This first paper in a series investigates the problem of predicting and analysing the effects of large changes in enzyme activities or external nutrients/effectors on metabolic fluxes. We introduce the concept of a deviation index, D, which gives a measure of the relative change in a metabolic variable (e.g. flux) due to a large (non-infinitesimal) relative change in a parameter (e.g. enzyme). Using simplifying kinetic assumptions we have found, for an unbranched metabolic chain, a direct relationship between deviation indices and flux control coefficients. This relationship provides a method to estimate flux control coefficients using a single large change in enzyme activity. We also provide a method of predicting the effects of, for example, DNA manipulation or other techniques for enzyme activity/concentration changes on metabolic fluxes. Up-modulations of single enzymes rarely produce significant changes in fluxes. We show that combined changes of activity of a group of enzymes will produce a more than 'additive' response. We provide a method of predicting the effects of these combined changes, given either the flux control coefficients of the group of enzymes or the effects on the flux of changing the enzymes individually. A similar analysis is carried out for large changes in external nutrients or effectors. These amplification factors, f, give experimentally accessible estimates of the expected changes in metabolic variables. We provide three 'case studies' to illustrate our results.The investigation of metabolism has had two principal aims : to understand how organisms work and to change them in desired directions. An understanding will be achieved if the physiological responses of the organism can be described in terms of the many thousand of 'unit' parts; the enzymecatalysed reactions. These responses happen as a result of naturally occurring changes in external conditions or due to the experimenter's manipulations. The desire to change organisms, including man, is testified by the long history of medicine and agriculture: to change sickness into health, to change low yields into high yields.The well-known complexity of metabolic structures along with many experimental explorations has made it evident that simple predictions of the outcome of external, or internal, manipulations are rarely possible. This is so in spite of the considerable progress in the enzymology and molecular biology of individual steps in the system. It is now accepted that a solution must come by taking a systemic view, rather than the study of isolated parts.The development of genetic manipulation technology has high-lighted the possibility of altering the metabolic properties of organisms in specific ways. In particular, the possible use of DNA manipulation in order to increase the concenCorrespondence to H. Kacser,