It can happen here: the impact of the Mumbai terror attacks on public opinion in Western Europe

Finseraas, Henning; Listhaug, Ola

doi:10.1007/s11127-011-9895-7

Cited by 79 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The one-sided test of this hypothesis rejects the null at the 1% level of significance no matter what type of standard errors are used to perform the test. 14 The results of elections are usually presented in the form of percentage of votes for a political party. We can calculate the percentage of the votes for the conservative party under the no-attack counterfactual using the predicted ratio and some accessory assumptions.…”

Section: The Review Of Economics and Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

Montalvo

2011

Review of Economics and Statistics

246

150

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Abstract-Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks.

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Section: The Review Of Economics and Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

Montalvo

2011

Review of Economics and Statistics

246

150

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“…Research on terrorist attacks and their impact on individual attitudes reduced this time window to 3 weeks following the event (e.g., Finseraas & Listhaug, or Legewie, ). However, this study analyzes change for events that have a prolonged duration by themselves, such as cold and heat waves.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Government Accountability and Natural Disasters: The Impact of Natural Hazard Events on Political Trust and Satisfaction With Governments in Europe

Albrecht¹

2017

Risk Hazard & Crisis Pub Pol

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Do natural disasters generally affect individuals' political trust and satisfaction with the government? To answer this question, 10 cases of minor and major disasters in Europe are examined using a quasi-experimental quantitative design that is based on ordinary least squares regression models. The results indicate that alterations in satisfaction with the government are possible, but only occur in very specific instances, and that effects are small. Changes in political trust are even more unlikely. While it was expected that disasters and their management have at least some effect on how individuals perceive their government's performance because they hold incumbents accountable for their actions, generally speaking this effect hardly occurs in relation to natural disasters. Political attitudes among individuals appear largely unaffected and cases of disasters when incumbents benefit from or are blamed for the perceived management of disasters appear to be uncommon.KEY WORDS: political trust, satisfaction with the government, accountability 政府问责和自然灾害:自然灾害事件对欧洲政府政治信任和满意度的影响自然灾害总体上会影响个人对政府的政治信任和满意度吗？为回答这一问题, 本文检验了欧洲地区共10个大型和小型灾害案例, 检验方法运用了基于普通最小二乘回归模型(ordinary least squares regression models)的"准实验定量研究设计"(quasi-experimental quantitative design)。结果显示, 个人对政府满意度的变化仅在非常特定的条件下才有可能发生, 且变化产生的效果很小。政治信任发生变化的机率则更小。尽管人们预期灾害和灾害管理最少也会对个人如何感知政府表现产生影响(因为民众能让政府在职者对其行为进行问责), 然而总体而言, 这种预期的效果几乎不会发生。个人的政治态度在很大程度上都不受影响, 并且通常也不会发生在职者因民众对其灾害管理的感知而受到奖励或批评的情况。关键词: 政府信任, 政府满意度, 问责 La rendici on de cuentas por parte del gobierno y los desastres naturales: El impacto de los eventos de peligros naturales en la confianza política y la satisfacci on con los gobiernos en Europa ¿Afectan los desastres naturales generalmente la confianza política de los individuos y la satisfacci on con el gobierno? Para responder esta pregunta, diez casos de desastres menores y mayores en Europa se examinaron usando un diseño casi experimental que se basa en modelos ordinarios de regresi on del mínimo cuadr atico parcial. Los resultados indican que las alteraciones en satisfacci on con el gobierno son posibles, pero que solo ocurren en instancias muy específicas y los efectos son menores. Los cambios en confianza política son a un menos probables. Mientras que se esperaba que los desastres y su gesti on tuvieran por lo menos el mismo efecto en c omo los individuos perciben el desempeño de sus gobiernos porque hacen que los políticos rindan cuentas de sus acciones; generalmente hablando, este efecto ocurre rara vez en relaci on con los desastres naturales. Las actitudes políticas en los individuos parecen no ser afectadas en general y los casos de desastres cuando los políticos obtienen beneficios o se les culpa por su gesti on percibida de los desastres parecen no ser comunes.PALABRAS CLAVES: confianza política, satisfacci on con el gobierno, rendici on de cuentas

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“…Finseraas and Listhaug (2013) found fear of terrorism increased in Western countries following the Mumbai attacks in 2008, and it has also been found that public threat perceptions with regards to terrorism are heavily influenced by the occurrence of mass-mediated threat messages by terrorist group leaders and by threat assessment alerts and announcements made by government (Nacos, Bloch-Elkon & Shapiro, 2007). Thus the offence of terrorism appears to be a distinct and different type of criminal activity that the public may be more fearful of, perceive as higher risk, and thus desire increased levels of force to feel reassured.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fear of crime on the rail networks: Perceptions of the UK public and British Transport Police

Power

McManus

Lynch

et al. 2016

Crime Prev Community Saf

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Counter-terrorism on the rail network is vital to the security of the UK. The British Transport Police (BTP) employ covert and overt security measures to prevent crime, which includes:closed circuit television, armed police, unarmed police, police community support officers, police dogs, stops and searches and awareness campaigns. All security measures aim to deter crime whilst importantly reassuring the public. We surveyed both members of the public and BTP officers about the perceived effectiveness of current security measures, specifically with regards to fear of terrorism. Feelings of reassurance and the perceived effectiveness of security measures were positively related. The most effective and reassuring security measure was the use of armed police; whereas the least effective and reassuring was the use of awareness campaigns. However, interestingly, qualitative analyses suggested that an increase in armed police without informed awareness campaigns would have a negative impact on public reassurance by increasing fear.

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It can happen here: the impact of the Mumbai terror attacks on public opinion in Western Europe

Cited by 79 publications

References 22 publications

Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

Government Accountability and Natural Disasters: The Impact of Natural Hazard Events on Political Trust and Satisfaction With Governments in Europe

Fear of crime on the rail networks: Perceptions of the UK public and British Transport Police

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