Is there a quiescent typhoon season over the western North Pacific following a strong El Niño event?

Wang, Chao; Wu, Liguang; Zhao, Haikun; Cao, Jian; Tian, Wei

doi:10.1002/joc.5782

Cited by 17 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Maue () suggested that NH TC activity is closely linked to the dominant modes of NP climate variability such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). A negative phase of the NPGO occurred in the summer of 2018, which seems to be consistent with the heightened TC activity that the NH experienced in 2018 (Maue, ; C. Wang et al, ; Wei Zhang et al, ). But it is unclear how abnormal the year 2018 is compared to historical records.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

“…In fact, the temporal evolution of subtropical NP SST was significantly correlated with that of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM, Chiang & Vimont, ) index with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 over 1965‐2018. This close connection suggested their similar effects on TC activity in the WNP (C. Wang, Wu, et al, ; Y.‐K. Wu et al, ; Zhan et al, ; W Zhang et al, ) and the ENP (Collins et al, ; Murakami et al, ; Wood et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Such a transition occurred around the same time as the termination of the global warming hiatus and the phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Fyfe et al, ; Meehl et al, ). Additionally, some recent studies found that anomalous subtropical NP warming was responsible for the failure in seasonal forecasting of the 2016 WNP TC season following the 2015–2016 El Niño event (Chen & Wang, ; C. Wang, Wu, et al, ; Y.‐K. Wu et al, ; Yamada et al, ; Zhan et al, ).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, SST warming occurred in the subtropical NP during the TC peak season following the strong 20152016 El Niño event. The subtropical NP SST warming stimulated an anomalous cyclonic circulation, induced a convergence zone over the WNP and thus led to active TC activity during the 2016 TC peak season (C. Wang, Wu, et al, ; Y.‐K. Wu et al, ; Zhan et al, ).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Wang

Cao

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June‐September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward‐recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large‐scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere‐scale.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Wang

Cao

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In recent decades, the TC activity over the WNP basin has demonstrated significant changes (Wu and Wang, ; Yu et al ., ; Wang and Wu, ; Wang et al ., ). The 24 hr TC track forecasts from the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration have significantly improved, but there is still much room for improvement when considering sudden deflection and looping tracks in some special large‐scale environments (Xu et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Influence of varying time scale flows on tropical cyclone track changes

Chen

Duan³

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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It is often difficult to predict tropical cyclone (TC) tracks for the case of binary or even multiple TCs. To investigate this issue, two TCs over the western North Pacific basin in September 2016, Meranti and Malakas, were explored in this study. The two TCs formed close to each other, and their tracks were similar at an early stage but then deflected northward over different regions. The results indicate that the Meranti track change may be due to the asymmetric highfrequency flows induced by topography, while the Malakas track change is attributed to the formation and strengthening of low-frequency southerlies. It was found that the formation and evolution of low-frequency monsoon circulation is the main cause for the emergence of the low-frequency flows, and the process is accompanied by the enhancement and movement of low-frequency positive vorticity. Therefore, based on the diagnostic results using the lowfrequency vorticity budget equation, it is shown that the low-frequency vorticity advection and convergence induced by the low-frequency flows play varying roles in the development of low-frequency positive vorticity. More noteworthy is that the high-frequency positive vorticity of TCs can trigger the enhancement of low-frequency positive vorticity through nonlinear interactions, which have rarely been discussed in previous studies. It can be concluded that the interactions between high-and low-frequency flows and vorticity may affect the development and evolution of the TCs at different time scales, finally leading to TC track deflection. K E Y W O R D S different time scale steering flows, low-frequency vorticity, tropical cyclone track

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How does the onset time of El Niño events affect tropical cyclone genesis and intensity over the western North Pacific?

Liang

Chan

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous studies have shown that the equatorial Pacific Ocean warming can be separated into spring (April~June; SP) and summer (July~October; SU) modes based on the onset time of El Niño events. Different onset times are caused by different atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which, in turn, should influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While the location of TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) shifts significantly eastward and equatorward in the SP type relative to climatology (1951–2017), only an eastward shift occurs in the SU type. Only intense TCs (category 1 + 2 + 3 and 4 + 5) have an obvious eastward and equatorward shift in the SP type, with no such shift in any TC category in the SU type. The number of category 4 + 5 TCs in the SP type increases significantly, but fewer category 1 + 2 + 3 TCs in the SU type. In the SP type, TCs are generally stronger, with more in category 4 + 5, and longer life spans occurring across all categories. However, no obvious change in TC intensity can be identified except for category 1 + 2 + 3 in the SU type. The eastward and equatorward shift of the mean genesis position in the developing phases of SP can be attributed to a southeastward shift of favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which include weaker zonal vertical wind shear, stronger relative vorticity, higher mid‐level relative humidity, and enhanced upper‐ocean temperature (5–100 m). All these conditions are mainly related to the onset time of the westerly anomalies near the central equatorial Pacific. These results suggest that the onset time of El Niño events could serve as a good forecasting indicator for TC genesis position and intensity over the WNP.

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Is there a quiescent typhoon season over the western North Pacific following a strong El Niño event?

Cited by 17 publications

References 48 publications

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Influence of varying time scale flows on tropical cyclone track changes

How does the onset time of El Niño events affect tropical cyclone genesis and intensity over the western North Pacific?

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