Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?

Gunduz, Lokman; Hatemi‐J, Abdulnasser

doi:10.1080/13504850500109865

Cited by 439 publications

(272 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Empirical work which demonstrates that tourism is considered as a main factor in economic growth are Cantavella-Jordá (2002, 2004) for Spain, Dritsakis (2004) for Greece, Durbarry (2004) for Mauritius Gunduz and Hatemi (2005) for Turkey, Oh (2005) for Korea, Kim et al (2006) for Taiwan, Louca (2006) for Cyprus, Brida et al (2008) for Mexico, Noriko and Motosugu (2007) for the Amami Islands in Japan, Gani (1998) random effects and fixed effects models showed that growth in tourism was associated with economic growth only in African countries. A negative relationship was found between tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries, and in the countries with specialization in tourism.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

2012

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The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting and topical empirical issue. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in 159 countries over the period 1989-2008. The results from panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between economic growth and tourism. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to quantify the contributions of tourism specialization to economic growth, while correcting for endogeneity between the regressors and error term. The significant impact of tourism specialization on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different specifications of tourism specialization, as well as to differences in real GDP measurement. However, the coefficients of the tourism specialization variables in the two regimes are significantly different, with a higher impact of tourism on economic growth found in the low regime. These findings do not change with changes in the threshold variables. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to substantial economic growth.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

2012

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“…Tourism can act as a growth engine; it contributes to GDP growth, job creation, and foreign exchange generation. Researchers [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] suggested many reasons for tourism to be a positive long-run factor in the economic growth of a country. These reasons are as follows:…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, despite using research methodologies based on time series and/or panel data analytical techniques, empirical studies have shown mixed or even inconsistent results in terms of supporting the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis. Examples of studies that analyze the relationship between tourism and economic growth employing the Granger causality test with time series data analysis include Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda [9], Durbarry [10], Gunduz and Hatemi-J [11], Brida, Carrera, and Risso [12], Chen and Chiou-Wei [13], Belloumi [16], Akinboade and Braimoh [17], Tang and Abosedra [18], and Tang and Tan [19]. These studies provide evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis.…”

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confidence: 99%

Is Tourism Development a Sustainable Economic Growth Strategy in the Long Run? Evidence from GCC Countries

Alhowaish

2016

Sustainability

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Abstract:The main objective of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in a multivariate model, using panel data for the period 1995-2012. The study adopts a panel Granger causality analysis approach to assess the contribution of tourism to economic growth in GCC countries as a whole, and in each individual country. In the case of GCC countries as a whole, the results show a one-way Granger causality, from economic growth to tourism growth. Furthermore, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates follow the path of economy-driven tourism growth, as hypothesized. The reverse hypothesis (i.e., tourism-led growth hypothesis) holds true for Bahrain, while there is no causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the case of Oman.

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“…De hecho, estudios recientes, realizados para países como España (Balaguer y Cantavella-Jordá, 2002), Grecia (Dritsakis, 2004), Mauricio (Durbarry, 2004), Turquía (Gunduz y Hatemi, 2005), Corea (Oh, 2005) o Taiwan (Kim, Chen y Soo, 2006), vienen a demostrar que existe una correlación positiva y estadísticamente relevante entre exportaciones por turismo y crecimiento económico. Esta relación viene explicada por dos hechos sustanciales.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Competitividad versus crecimiento en destinos turísticos. Un análisis mediante técnicas multivariantes

Fernández

Rivero

2010

Cuadernos de Economía

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ResumenCompetitividad y crecimiento se han convertido en dos cuestiones clave en el debate sobre el papel del turismo como instrumento de desarrollo económico. Este artículo demuestra que existe una relación directa y estadísticamente significativa entre ambas variables, y que una mayor competitividad turística favorece un mayor crecimiento turístico de los destinos. Es cierto que esta influencia no se produce con igual intensidad en todos los aspectos utilizados para medir la competitividad turística, por lo que los países deberían apostar por aquellos que mayor capacidad tienen para generar crecimiento. Y también es cierto, y queda patente en este artículo, que hay países que aprovechan mejor su capacidad competitiva que otros, lo que se traduce en la consecución de niveles de crecimiento turístico superiores a los que cabría esperar en virtud de sus competitividad. AbstractCompetitiveness and growth have become two key issues in the debate on the role of tourism as an economic development tool. This article demonstrates a statistically significant direct relationship between two variables, and that further enhances the competitive tourist destination tourism growth. It is true that this influence does not occur with equal intensity in all aspects used for measuring tourism competitiveness, so that countries should opt for those aspects that have enhanced capacity to generate growth. And also true, and is evidenced in this article, that some countries better their competitive advantage than others, resulting in achieving higher levels of tourism growth would be expected by virtue of their competitiveness.Keywords: tourism growth, competitiveness, tourism destinations, canonical correlation, discriminant analysis, World Economic Forum JEL clasification: F35, L83, O19, Q01 IntroducciónNumerosas instituciones han puesto de manifiesto la importancia del turismo como motor de transformación social y herramienta para favorecer el desarrollo económico (OECD, 2009; UNWTO, 2005; WTTC, 2005), así como su potencial de crecimiento; hasta el punto de que se prevé que el turismo generará en un horizonte no mayor a diez años el 11,3% del PIB mundial y el 8,3% del empleo (WTTC, 2005). La literatura económica coincide con estas afirmaciones. Desde el análisis del papel del turismo internacional en la provisión de divisas, o su contribución al equilibrio del déficit comercial de la balanza de pagos, hasta su capacidad para generar empleo, o para incrementar los ingresos fiscales -y, con ello, las posibilidades de intervención pública para la mejora del bienestar de los ciudadanos, son muchas las contribuciones En principio, parece evidente que, para que el turismo se consolide como una potente herramienta de generación de empleo y riqueza en un territorio, contribuyendo a la mejora del bienestar de sus ciudadanos, éste territorio debe ser atractivo, generando una dinámica de demanda turística que contribuya al aumento del flujo de bienes COMPETITIVIDAD VERSUS CRECIMIENTO EN DESTINOS TURÍSTICOS. UN ANÁLISIS MEDIANTE TÉCNICAS MU...

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Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?

Cited by 439 publications

References 17 publications

IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

Is Tourism Development a Sustainable Economic Growth Strategy in the Long Run? Evidence from GCC Countries

Competitividad versus crecimiento en destinos turísticos. Un análisis mediante técnicas multivariantes

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