Abstract:Using a broad sample of earnings announcements, we show that the initial stock market's response substantially increases and the post‐earnings announcement drift becomes much weaker in the presence of more active pre‐earnings option trading. We find that the strongest initial stock market's response originates from those announcements with higher pre‐earnings option trading, fewer competing announcements, and made on non‐Fridays. Our interpretation is that the heightened investor attention, as captured by high… Show more
“…Past studies have documented the behavior of options volume around events like mergers and acquisitions, insider trading, bankruptcy, etc. (for instance, Mazouz, Wu, & Yin, 2015;Spyrou, Tsekrekos, & Siougle, 2011;Wang, Yan, Zhang, & Gao, 2018). This study focuses on option volumes around quarterly EA only.…”
Recent literature reports higher single stock options (SSO) volume before earnings announcements (EA). There are no studies that explore single stock futures (SSF) in this context because of illiquid SSF markets in developed countries. Similar to SSO, SSF provide embedded leverage and facilitate short selling although at a lower cost, but do not provide downside‐risk protection. India’s liquid SSO and SSF provide a unique setting to study the preference of informed traders. We observe an increase in both SSO and SSF volume before EA. Further, SSF dominate SSO possibly due to SSO becoming expensive before EA and higher information leakage in India.
“…Past studies have documented the behavior of options volume around events like mergers and acquisitions, insider trading, bankruptcy, etc. (for instance, Mazouz, Wu, & Yin, 2015;Spyrou, Tsekrekos, & Siougle, 2011;Wang, Yan, Zhang, & Gao, 2018). This study focuses on option volumes around quarterly EA only.…”
Recent literature reports higher single stock options (SSO) volume before earnings announcements (EA). There are no studies that explore single stock futures (SSF) in this context because of illiquid SSF markets in developed countries. Similar to SSO, SSF provide embedded leverage and facilitate short selling although at a lower cost, but do not provide downside‐risk protection. India’s liquid SSO and SSF provide a unique setting to study the preference of informed traders. We observe an increase in both SSO and SSF volume before EA. Further, SSF dominate SSO possibly due to SSO becoming expensive before EA and higher information leakage in India.
“…Classical market microstructure literature often takes a ‘black and white’ view of the world, according to which informed investors are perfectly informed while uninformed investors know nothing (Vives 2008; Wang et al. 2018; Chung et al. 2020).…”
Building on the Bayesian Theorem, we propose a multi-period market microstructure model to understand how Bayesian investors underact new information and the duration of market underreaction. Applying the model to post-earnings-announcement drifts, our simulation and regression analyses show that the duration of the post-announcement price adjustment process and the post-announcement drifts can be explained by the new measure of belief updating speed that quantifies the uncertainties faced by Bayesian investors when incorporating new information into prices. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating the belief uncertainties of uninformed investors in explaining market underreaction in the Bayesian framework.
“…This is incompatible with research on attention (see Section 3.3.3) where the general premise implies that individuals have to narrow their focus due to basic human cognitive constraints (see . See also Hirshleifer and Teoh (2003), Da et al (2011), Engelberg and Parsons (2011), Chen (2017), Colaco et al (2017), Girardi and Nico (2017), Boyacı and Akçay (2018), Engelberg et al (2018), Gargano and Rossi (2018), and Wang et al (2018). 38 See Oehler (2000bOehler ( ), (2002Oehler ( ), (2004Oehler ( ), (2006aOehler ( , pp.…”
Section: Neoclassical Finance and Market Efficiencymentioning
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