Investigation on the Impact of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) on Climate Research: Case Study in Malaysia

Abstract

This study evaluated the role of RCPs as a significant development in the climate research. RCP presents different scenarios based on specific radiation forcing that would lead to the climate formulations known as RCP2.6 (2.6W/m2), RCP4.5 (4.5W/m2) and RCP8.5 (8.5W/m2). In recent years, Malaysia has conducted climate research using Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) under the A1B scenario. To address the AR4's flaws, these situations had been updated, and the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) had been launched since 2014. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of RCPs on the climate generation and to identify the suitable radiation level for Malaysia. The study used statistical climate model (SDSM) as a climate driver to downscale the long-term local climates with regard to the possible emission changes in the local weather. According to the findings, 4 out of 10 states agreed that the RCP2.6 had a good association to the regional climate with higher R (> 0.8) and lower %MAE (< 23%). This result demonstrated that the RCPs plays a main role in the long-term climate assessment.