Investigating the Drivers of Grid Electricity Demand in Nigeria: Harnessing the Power of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Algorithms

Abstract

The electricity situation in Nigeria is epileptic, and several households rely on alternative sources of electricity to power homes and businesses. In an urban area of the country, four (4) out of every six (6) households operate an alternative electricity supply. On the other hand, individuals in rural areas can hardly afford alternative electricity sources. More so, urban individuals use mostly alternative sources that are non-renewable (such as generators), thereby causing environmental degradation and promoting Climate-related issues. The direct impact of these alternative electricity sources has led to the death of entire families due to carbon monoxide breathing by household occupants/family and caused detrimental health issues to nearby households on several occasions. To address electricity instability issues and promote a sustainable and reliable green energy future, it is worthwhile to identify the factors influencing the grid electricity demand and develop efficient models for identifying these factors and their influence on grid electricity demand. The study finds that classical algorithms are ultimately inefficient due to the multicollinearity component of the relevant features. Consequently, the study harnesses the power of Blackbox and Glassbox algorithms - Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), respectively, to investigate these factors. The two learning algorithms agreed that Nigeria's electricity demand is majorly driven by Macroeconomic and Climatology variables – with Rural population, Temperature and GDP per capita being the most relevant drivers of electricity demand in Nigeria. Given the relevance of the GDP per capita, the result implies that the discrepancies in the socioeconomic characteristics of households or individuals in Urban to Rural played a major role in the electricity demand in Nigeria. Hence, the study concludes that by addressing only Electricity problems, Nigeria will achieve fifty-three (53) percent of the global SDG agenda and greater economic development.