International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation

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In December 2019, the 13th revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was released by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group V-MOD. This revision comprises two new spherical harmonic main field models for epochs 2015.0 (DGRF-2015) and 2020.0 (IGRF-2020) and a model of the predicted secular variation for the interval 2020.0 to 2025.0 (SV-2020-2025). The models were produced from candidates submitted by fifteen international teams. These teams were led by the British Geological Survey (UK), China Earthquake Administration (China), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain), University of Colorado Boulder (USA), Technical University of Denmark (Denmark), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany), Institut de physique du globe de Paris (France), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (France), Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Kyoto University (Japan), University of Leeds (UK), Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Germany), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA), University of Potsdam (Germany), and Université de Strasbourg (France). The candidate models were evaluated individually and compared to all other candidates as well to the mean, median and a robust Huber-weighted model of all candidates. These analyses were used to identify, for example, the variation between the Gauss coefficients or the geographical regions where the candidate models strongly differed. The majority of candidates were sufficiently close that the differences can be explained primarily by individual modeling methodologies and data selection strategies. None of the candidates were so different as to warrant their exclusion from the final IGRF-13. The IAGA V-MOD task force thus voted for two approaches: the median of the Gauss coefficients of the candidates for the DGRF-2015 and IGRF-2020 models and the robust Huber-weighted model for the predictive SV-2020-2025. In this paper, we document the evaluation of the candidate models and provide details of the approach used to derive the final IGRF-13 products. We also perform a retrospective analysis of the IGRF-12 SV candidates over their performance period (2015–2020). Our findings suggest that forecasting secular variation can benefit from combining physics-based core modeling with satellite observations.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of candidate models for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field

Alken

Thébault

Beggan

et al. 2021

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“…These values are given in Table 4. Figure 4 shows comparisons between the power spectra of each of our candidate models and the final IGRF-13 models (Alken et al 2020a). For the DGRF at 2015.0 we see excellent agreement in the spectra, with our candidate very close to the final chosen model of the median of all candidates (see Alken et al 2020b).…”

Section: Main Field At 20150mentioning

confidence: 68%

The BGS candidate models for IGRF-13 with a retrospective analysis of IGRF-12 secular variation forecasts

Brown

Beggan

Cox

et al. 2021

The three candidate models submitted by the British Geological Survey for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field are described. These DGRF and IGRF models are derived from vector and scalar magnetic field data from the European Space Agency Swarm satellites and ground observatories, covering the period 2013.9 to 2019.7. The internal field model has time dependence for degrees 1 to 15, represented by order 6 B-splines with knots at six monthly intervals. We also solve for a degree 1 external field time dependence describing annual and semi-annual signals with additional dependence on a bespoke Vector Magnetic Disturbance index. Satellite data are weighted by spatial density, along-track standard deviations, and a larger-scale noise estimator defined in terms of a measure of Local Area Vector Activity at the geographically closest magnetic observatories to the sampled datum. Forecasting of the magnetic field secular variation for 2020–2025 is by advection of the main field using steady core surface flows with steady acceleration applied. We also investigate the performance of the previous generation of candidate secular variation models, for IGRF-12, analysing the agreement of the candidates between 2015 and 2020 with the retrospective IGRF-13. We find that there is no clear distinction between the performance of mathematically and physically extrapolated forecasts in the period 2015–2020. We confirm that the methodology for the BGS IGRF-12 predictions performed well, despite observed secular accelerations that are highlighted by our analysis, and thus justify the methodology used for our IGRF-13 SV candidate.

“…7a, b). The drifts of western minimum and saddle point most likely continue according to both the Mag.num and also the final IGRF-13 (Alken et al 2020b) predictions, as shown by the red squares and blue crosses, respectively. The drift of the eastern minimum has already slowed down in recent years, and the models predict that it will not drift further eastward in the next 5 years.…”

Section: At Earth's Surfacementioning

confidence: 78%

The Mag.num core field model as a parent for IGRF-13, and the recent evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly

Rother

Korte

Morschhauser

et al. 2021

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We present the GFZ candidate field models for the $$13{\mathrm{th}}$$ 13 th Generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-13). These candidates were derived from the geomagnetic core field model, which is constrained by Swarm satellite and ground observatory data from November 2013 to August 2019. Data were selected from magnetically quiet periods, and the model parameters have been obtained using an iteratively reweighted inversion scheme approximating a robust modified Huber norm as a measure of misfit. The root mean square misfit of the model to Swarm and observatory data is in the order of 3–5 nT for mid and low latitudes, with a maximum of 44 nT for the satellite east component data at high latitudes. The time-varying core field is described by order 6 splines and spherical harmonic coefficients up to degree and order 20. We note that the temporal variation of the core field component of the model is strongly damped and shows a smooth secular variation that suits well for the IGRF, where secular variation is represented as constant over 5-year intervals. Further, the external field is parameterised by a slowly varying part and a more rapidly varying part controlled by magnetic activity and interplanetary magnetic field proxies. Additionally, the Euler angles of the magnetic field sensor orientation are co-estimated. A widely discussed feature of the geomagnetic field is the South Atlantic Anomaly, a zone of weak and decreasing field strength stretching from southern Africa over to South America. The IGRF and indicate that the anomaly has developed a second, less pronounced eastern minimum at Earth’s surface since 2007. We observe that while the strong western minimum continues to drift westwards, the less pronounced eastern minimum currently drifts eastward at Earth’s surface. This does not seem to be linked to any eastward motion at the core–mantle boundary, but rather to intensity changes of westward drifting flux patches contributing to the observed surface field. Also, we report a sudden change in the secular variation measured at two South Atlantic observatories around 2015.0, which occurred shortly after the well-known jerk of 2014.0.