Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards, Including Climate Change’s Influences, for Cultural Heritage Sites: The Case of the Historic Centre of Rethymno in Greece

Abstract

Within the framework of disaster risk management, this article proposes an interdisciplinary method for the analysis of multiple natural hazards, including climate change's influences, in the context of cultural heritage. A taxonomy of natural hazards applicable to cultural heritage was developed based on the existing theoretical and conceptual frameworks. Sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes and floods, and slow-onset hazards, such as wetting-drying cycles and biological contamination, were incorporated into the hazard assessment procedure. Future alteration of conditions due to climate change, such as change in heat waves' duration, was also taken into account. The proposed hazard assessment framework was applied to the case of the Historic Centre of Rethymno, a city on the northern coast of the island of Crete in Greece, to identify, analyze, and prioritize the hazards that have the potential to cause damage to the center's historic structures. The assessment procedure includes climate model projections, GIS spatial modeling and mapping, and finally a hazard analysis matrix to enable the sharing of a better understanding of multiple hazards with the stakeholders. The results can facilitate decision making by providing the vulnerability and risk analysis with the nature and spatial distribution of the significant hazards within the study area and its setting. Keywords Climate change analysis Á Crete Á Cultural heritage protection Á Greece Á Hazard assessment Á Historic centre of Rethymno Á Risk assessment

Climate change impacts on cultural heritage: A literature review

“…Note: [1] ICOMOS (2019), [2] UNESCO (2007), [3] Grossi et al (2007), [4] Sabbioni et al (2010), [5] Brimblecombe, Grossi, and Harris (2011), [6] Camuffo (2019), [7] Brimblecombe and Grossi (2007), [8] Nijland et al (2009), [9] van Aarle et al (2015), [10] Haugen and Mattsson (2011), [11] Viles, 2002), [12] Bonazza, Sabbioni, et al (2009), Bonazza, Messina, et al (2009), [13] Brimblecombe, Grossi, and Harris (2011), [14] Bonazza, Sabbioni, et al (2009), Bonazza, Messina, et al (2009), [15] Lefèvre (2014), [16] Tidblad (2012), [17] Tidblad (2013), [18] Grøntoft and Cassar (2020), [19] de la Fuente (2013), [20] Grøntoft (2011), [21] Cassar and Pender (2005), [22] Brimblecombe and Grossi (2009), [23] Brimblecombe and Grossi (2008), [24] Ciantelli et al (2018), [25] Viles and Cutler (2012), [26] Gómez‐Bolea et al (2012), [27] Ariño et al (2010), [28] Prieto et al (2020), [29] Adamson et al (2010), [30] Cutler et al (2013), [31] Grøntoft (2019), [32] Brimblecombe (2013), [33] Grossi et al (2011), [34] Menéndez (2018), [35] Ravankhah et al (2019), [36] Parkin et al (2015), [37] Orr et al (2018), [38] Mosoarca et al (2017), [39] Nik et al (2015), [40] Blankholm (2009), [41] Pearson (2008), [42] Leissner et al (2015), [43] Leissner et al (2014), [44] Loli and Bertolin (2018), [45] Sesana et al (2019), [46] Huijbregts et al (2013), [47] Lankester and Brimblecombe (2012a, 2012b)), [48] Bratasz et al (2012), [49] Lankester and Brimblecombe (2012a, 2012b), [50] Huijbregts et al (2014…”

“…Changes in wind speed and direction, as well as wind gusts during storms can cause enormous damage to heritage buildings and archeological sites, as they can impact the structures and potentially cause their collapse (Blankholm, 2009; Brimblecombe, Bonazza, et al, 2011; Grossi et al, 2011; Ravankhah et al, 2019; Sabbioni et al, 2008; UNESCO World Heritage Centre, 2007). Wind can transport pollutants, salts and sand, which damage heritage materials (Sabbioni et al, 2010), with the risk of eolian sand erosion prevailing in arid environments (Qu et al, 2014).…”

“…The frequency and magnitude of floods are projected to increase in Europe and Sabbioni et al (2010) defined particularly prone regions. Floods amplify other losses in coastal areas, affecting different heritage typologies (Blankholm, 2009; M. Cassar & Pender, 2005; Dassanayake et al, 2018; Glaser et al, 2010; Haugen & Mattsson, 2011; Kincey et al, 2008; Ravankhah et al, 2019; Snow, 2014; Wang, 2015). They drastically increase moisture in historical materials and structures, causing physical, chemical and biological degradation (Dassanayake et al, 2018).…”

“…More extreme rainfall under climate change will increase the risk of gully erosion (Nicu, 2016, 2017) and landslides (Cigna et al, 2016; Crozier, 2010; Gariano & Guzzetti, 2016; ICOMOS Climate Change and Heritage Working Group, 2019). For this reason, the risk of climate change to ground stability causing landslides, and their consequences on cultural heritage, have been referred to in the literature (Cigna et al, 2016; Ravankhah et al, 2019; Sabbioni et al, 2010; UNESCO World Heritage Centre, 2007). Sabbioni et al (2010) defined areas subject to this risk and projected an increase across Europe.…”

“…At the regional or local scale, Cigna et al (2016) studied the Derwent Valley Mills in the UK under climate change and projected an increase in landslide risk, as a consequence of extreme rainfall predicted for the UK, agreeing with the earlier analysis of Sabbioni et al (2010) at the continental scale. Ravankhah et al (2019) included landslides in a number of identified geological hazards, that may influence a site on the Greek Island of Crete in a changing climate. Furthermore, many heritage rupestrian sites, such as the WHS of Petra in Jordan, are carved in cliffs and are inevitably exposed to slope instability and rockfall, in addition to the ubiquitous weathering of the rocks (Margottini et al, 2016); nonetheless, potential future changes in rockfall hazards due to climate change have yet to be investigated in this case.…”