Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards and Climate Change Adaptation: II - The Serra Methodology

Mojtahed, Vahid; Giupponi, Carlo; Biscaro, Claudio; Gain, Animesh K.; Balbi, Stefano

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2233312

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Despite their evident relevance, the links between physical and social dimensions of flood risk have rarely been explored in detail and sectoral and technocratic approaches to flood risk management have been preferred (Brown and Damery 2002). To go beyond technocratic approaches, in this study we apply an integrated assessment framework of risk (see Figure 2) recently developed by Giupponi et al (2013a) and Mojtahed et al (2013) that combines various social and ecological indicators of risks related to floods. The framework has been implemented in the eastern part of Dhaka city, Bangladesh, extremely prone to detrimental flooding.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The framework is shown in Figure 2. The detailed description of framework can be found in Giupponi et al (2013a) and Mojtahed et al (2013). In brief, risk is considered as the result of the combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.…”

Section: Concept Of Risk and Framework For Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the indicators for assessing flood risk are different from the indicators of seismic risk. As this work is focused on flood hazards, we referred to Giupponi et al (2013a) and Mojtahed et al (2013), who proposed a generalized list of indicators representing adaptive capacity, coping capacity and susceptibility. The most appropriate indicators for the study case were selected considering the data availability and the spatial extent of the study area.…”

Section: Assessment Of Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(see Figure 1), the following equation (Eq. 1) similar to Gain and Hoque (2013) and Mojtahed et al (2013) has been used.…”

Section: Economic Damages To Land Use Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For calculating these intangible damages, first flood severeness (Eq. 4) is calculated following the method presented in DEFRA (2006) and Mojtahed et al (2013).…”

Section: Direct Intangible Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

et al. 2015

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The flood risk is a function of the flood hazard, the exposed values and their vulnerability. In addition to extreme hydrological events, different anthropogenic activities such as extensive urbanization and land use play an important role in producing catastrophic floods.Considerations of both physical and social dimensions are therefore equally important in flood risk assessment. However, very often the risk assessment studies either focus on physical or social dimensions. In addition, the available studies often focus on economic valuation of only direct tangible costs. In this study, we provide an integrated flood risk assessment approach that go beyond valuation of direct tangible costs, through incorporating physical dimensions in hazard and exposure and social dimensions in vulnerability. The method has been implemented in the Dhaka City, Bangladesh, an area internationally recognized hotspot for flood risk. In this study, flood hazards for different return periods are calculated in spatial environment using a hydrologic model, HEC-RAS. Vulnerability is assessed through aggregation of various social dimensions i.e., coping and adaptive capacities, susceptibility. We assess vulnerability for both baseline and improved scenario. In the baseline scenario, current early warning for study area is considered. In the alternative scenario, the warning system is expected to improve. Aggregating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, risk maps (in terms of both tangible and intangible costs) of several return period floods are produced for both baseline and improved scenario. Compared to traditional assessments, the integrated assessment approach used in this study generates more information about the flood risk. Consequently, the results are useful in evaluating policy alternatives and minimizing property loss in the study area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Concept Of Risk and Framework For Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessment Of Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(see Figure 1), the following equation (Eq. 1) similar to Gain and Hoque (2013) and Mojtahed et al (2013) has been used.…”

Section: Economic Damages To Land Use Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For calculating these intangible damages, first flood severeness (Eq. 4) is calculated following the method presented in DEFRA (2006) and Mojtahed et al (2013).…”

Section: Direct Intangible Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

et al. 2015

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Flood inundation mapping in data‐scarce areas: A case of Mbire District, Zimbabwe

Manyangadze

Mavhura

Mudavanhu

et al. 2022

Geography and Environment

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Floods are one of the most devastating weather‐related hazards that are affecting millions of people over the world every year. In some poor resource areas such as Mbire District in Zimbabwe, the floods are difficult to anticipate and prepare for. Hence the need for spatial modelling of the past flood events for effective response and management. This study modelled the flood extent and depth based on data from household surveys, transect walks and a digital elevation model (DEM). A sample of 304 households was used, with 70% for calibration and 30% for validation of the flood extent. Twenty‐four flood depth measurements obtained from transect walks were used to validate the modelled flood depths based on a linear regression model. The flood depth of the worst most recent flood (January 2015) at each household was combined with altitude from the DEM using the sum function, and the inverse distance weighting was applied to model the worst flood depth. The flood extent was considered as those areas where flood depth was higher than the DEM. Approximately 24% of the area was covered by floods. The modelled flood extent agreed reasonably well with what was reported during the survey (probability of detection 0.93 and accuracy level about 0.8). Most of the areas in the wards experienced flood depths greater than 2 m, especially along the major rivers. Such areas are dangerous for people, animals and properties such as boreholes, houses, schools and clinics located on the floodplain. These results can be used for planning purposes in preparing and responding to stages of the flood management cycle. However, there is a need for further research to improve the performance and applicability of the methodology applied in this study in other settings.

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Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

2021

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Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

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Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards and Climate Change Adaptation: II - The Serra Methodology

Cited by 9 publications

References 34 publications

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

Flood inundation mapping in data‐scarce areas: A case of Mbire District, Zimbabwe

Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

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