Insurgency, Political Risk, and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: A Sectorial Analysis

Danjuma, Iyaji

doi:10.33429/cjas.12221.2/5

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Apart from the unstable macroeconomic cited, corruption and insecurity are serious hindrances to the country's investment opportunities and are often cited by foreign and domestic investors as a significant obstacle to doing business. Insecurity includes the ongoing religious tensions, terrorism, and ethnic tensions, military in politics, corruption, and (civil) war experienced in Nigeria over the last decades (Danjuma, 2021). The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic played a part, with many businesses across the globe practically shut down for months.…”

Section: Descriptive Analysis Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Government Debt Sustainability and Investments in Nigeria: Trends and Risk Thresholds amidst Macroeconomic Swings

Onyele

Ikwuagwu

Opara

2023

PJGD

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The core idea behind government debt is to fund fiscal deficit, which is anticipated to drive economic investments. To a larger extent, this is not the case, as evidenced in the Nigerian context, where debt has risen so high with investment levels declining, thus questioning the government's ability to manage and sustain its debt to pursue vital investment needs. This study aimed to investigate the threshold effect of debt sustainability on investments amidst macroeconomic swings from 1981 to 2020. In this regard, the threshold autoregressive regression (TAR) was used because it gave information on the optimal threshold of debt sustainability that would attract investments. Also, the Granger causality test was carried out to show the direction of causality among the variables. This paper concentrated on debt service to revenue and total debt stock to GDP as debt sustainability measures while investment was decomposed into public, private, and foreign investments. The paper yields that, based on the multivariate TAR analyses, the main threshold variables, that is, debt service to revenue and total debt stock to GDP, had a non-linear relationship with public, private, and foreign direct investments amidst changes in macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation, and monetary policy rate. The threshold coefficient of debt service to revenue indicated that public and foreign direct investments declined during low thresholds while private investment increased. However, the opposite prevailed when debt service to revenue exceeded the threshold values. However, the Granger causality test showed that debt service to revenue Granger caused total debt stock to GDP and exchange rate Granger caused debt service to revenue ratio, implying that exchange rate swings could affect the government's ability to service debt which in turn explains the non-linear relationship between debt sustainability and investments. Hence, it was concluded that Nigeria's lack of debt sustainability was associated with revenue generation, which explains why the models did not follow a linear path.

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Section: Descriptive Analysis Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Government Debt Sustainability and Investments in Nigeria: Trends and Risk Thresholds amidst Macroeconomic Swings

Onyele

Ikwuagwu

Opara

2023

PJGD

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“…These macroeconomic variables were shown to have a positive and substantial influence on foreign direct investment flows in Nigeria. Danjuma (2021) researched the influence of insurgency, political violence, corruption, and religious conflicts on foreign direct investment inflows to Nigeria's banking, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, and telecommunications industries, between 2008 and 2017. The dependent variable was proxied by foreign direct investment, whereas the independent variable was proxied by insurgency, political violence, corruption, and religious strife using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach.…”

Section: Empirical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

National Security and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria (2005 -2022)

Rosemary Bukola Ajala,

Charles Ikechukwu Ejemezu

2023

economit

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In the last decade, there has been an increase in national insecurity in the country, which has resulted in many people being killed, kidnapped, and misplaced. Despite different measures put in place by the government, national security has not been well noticed in Nigeria. As a result, this study empirically examined the effect of national security on inflows of foreign direct investment in Nigeria, covering the period 2005–2021. The study measured foreign direct investment using the net inflow of foreign direct investment, while measuring national security by the budgets of external defence and internal security. Control variables are gross domestic product and trade openness. Secondary data were sourced from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and estimated using an auto-regressive distributed model. The study found that both government expenditure for external defence and internal defence had positive effects on foreign direct investment, while only government expenditure for external defence was found to significantly impact foreign direct investment in the long run at a 5% level of significance. This implies that continuous expenditure by the government to combat national insecurity would ensure a serene environment, which would assure the citizenry's desire for national security. The study concluded that national security has a significant effect on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government ensure that the expenditure on both external and internal defence is well utilised and directed to the necessary quarters to reduce insecurity, which would increase the influx of foreign direct investors in the country. Furthermore, the government should also ensure that the armed forces and paramilitary squads are well motivated to increase their morale to fight insecurity so as to ensure national security and peace of mind for all the people within the country.

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“…In recent years, Nigeria has been subjected to almost uncontrollable spate of terrorists' activities that constitute serious setback to the development process of the Nigerian economy. This has led to severe loss of lives, destruction of properties, and a decline in investment opportunities both at local and foreign levels [1,2]. Farm settlements and other business ventures have been dislodged and these have caused a spike in unemployment rate in the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An intelligent pattern recognition model for assessment of terrorists’ activities in Nigeria

George¹,

Udoh²,

Obot³

2023

Int. J. Sci. Res. Arch.

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Terrorism and its brutal tendencies constitute a major setback to the development process of the Nigerian economy leading to severe loss of lives, destruction of properties, and a decline of interest in investment by both local and foreign investors. Many models for assessment of terrorist’s activities lack the ability of learning from previous patterns in order to guide pre-emptive actions against future occurrences, and there are no established regional pattern of weaponry, types of attack, as well as types of victims of terrorists’ operations. This study seeks to build a robust intelligent model for recognizing several terrorists’ patterns in each of the six geo-political zones of Nigeria. A data set of 5,503 instances of terrorists’ activities in Nigeria was obtained and a pattern recognition model was built using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with 70%, 15%, and 15% data splits for training, validation, and testing respectively. A 10-10-6 ANN architecture was designed and trained using the scaled conjugate gradient backpropagation algorithm. The training was carried out using Matlab’s neural network pattern recognition toolkit. In order to numerically represent categorical data, a sort-order scheme was developed by the authors and utilized. The results showed average percentage scores for accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score as 99.89, 99.96, 100 and 99.98 respectively. This showed acceptable performance. The developed model is therefore considered a robust one for recognition of terrorists’ patterns in Nigeria. This would assist security agencies to deal with terrorists’ incidences with high intelligent information and advanced preparation for prevention and control. The developed model is highly recommended for use by the security agencies in the country.

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Insurgency, Political Risk, and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: A Sectorial Analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

Government Debt Sustainability and Investments in Nigeria: Trends and Risk Thresholds amidst Macroeconomic Swings

Government Debt Sustainability and Investments in Nigeria: Trends and Risk Thresholds amidst Macroeconomic Swings

National Security and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria (2005 -2022)

An intelligent pattern recognition model for assessment of terrorists’ activities in Nigeria

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