Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

Abstract

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.phylogeography | population genomics | Amazon Forest | Atlantic Forest | climate change

Phylogeography and historical demography of the arboreal pit viper Bothrops bilineatus (Serpentes, Crotalinae) reveal multiple connections between Amazonian and Atlantic rain forests

“…A history of connections between western Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest, supported by our historical demographic study of B. bilineatus , was recovered by previous studies based on genetic data of birds and lizards (Batalha‐Filho et al., ; Prates et al., ). Phylogeographic studies have also found evidence of northern colonizations between the Atlantic Forest and northeastern Amazonia (Batalha‐Filho et al., ; Costa, ; Prates, Rivera, et al., ; Prates, Xue, et al., ). In spite of these two distinct proposed connection routes, previous studies have, by and large, found that Amazonia acted as the source of colonizations into the Atlantic Forest.…”

Contrasting evolutionary histories in Neotropical birds: Divergence across an environmental barrier in South America

“…Previous studies have emphasized the role of biological attributes in the idiosyncratic responses of different species to shared environmental changes, even between codistributed taxa (Garg et al, ; Prates, Rivera, Rodrigues, & Carnaval, ; Prates, Xue et al, ; Smith et al, ). It has been shown that differences in habitat choice and ecological constraints can explain variation in the levels of population divergence across taxa (Burney & Brumfield, ; Garg et al, ; Harvey et al, ; Smith et al, ; Weir, Bermingham, & Schluter, ).…”

Rain forest shifts through time and riverine barriers shaped the diversification of South American terrestrial pit vipers (Bothrops jararacussu species group)

“…A history of past forest connections and separation has been invoked to explain presently disjunct distributions in a variety of organisms (Birds: Batalha‐Filho et al, ; Mammals: Costa, ; Nascimento, Bonvicino, Oliveira, Schneider, & Seuãnez, ; Pavan, Martins, Santos, Ditchfield, & Redondo, ; Lizards: Pellegrino et al, ; Rodrigues et al, ; Prates et al, ; Prates, Rivera, et al, ; Prates, Xue, et al, ; Prates et al, , 2018; Snakes: Zamudio & Greene, ; Dal Vechio et al, ). However, studies based on genetic data have found incongruent times, spatial routes and directionalities of forest colonization.…”

“…The idea of past range expansions across South American rain forests has received increased attention. Proposed historical corridors between Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest include northern bridges through the dry Caatinga in present‐day north‐eastern Brazil and along Brazil's northern coast (Mammals: Costa, ; Lizards: Pellegrino, Rodrigues, Harris, Yonenaga‐Yassuda, & Sites, ; Prates, Rivera, et al, , Prates, Xue, et al, ; Birds: Batalha‐Filho, Fjeldsa, Fabre, & Miyaki, ; Snakes: Puorto et al, ; Dal Vechio et al, ), as well as southern bridges between south‐western Amazonia and the southern Atlantic Forest (Mammals: Costa, ; Lizards: Prates et al, ; Birds: Batalha‐Filho et al, ; Snakes: Dal Vechio et al, ). These forest corridors may have been established at different times in the past, with evidence of northern connections during the Pleistocene and southern ones over the Miocene (Batalha‐Filho et al, ; Dal Vechio et al, ; Ledo & Colli, ; Prates et al, ; Prates, Rivera, et al, ).…”