Individualized prediction nomograms for disease progression in mild COVID‐19

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 has evolved into a pandemic rapidly. The majority of COVID-19 patients are with mild syndromes. This study aimed to develop models for predicting disease progression in mild cases. The risk factors for the requirement of oxygen support in mild COVID-19 were explored using multivariate logistic regression. Nomogram as visualization of the models was developed using R software. A total of 344 patients with mild COVID-19 were included in the final analysis, 45 of whom progressed and needed high-flow oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation after admission. There were 188 (54.7%) males, and the average age of the cohort was 52.9 ± 16.8 years. When the laboratory data were not included in multivariate analysis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, T ≥ 38.5℃ and sputum were independent risk factors of progressive COVID-19 (Model 1). When the blood routine test was included the CHD, T ≥ 38.5℃ and neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio were found to be independent predictors (Model 2). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of model 2 was larger than model 1 (0.872 vs 0.849, P = .023). The negative predictive value of both models was greater than 96%, indicating they could serve as simple tools for ruling out the possibility of disease progression. In conclusion, two models comprised common symptoms (fever and sputum), underlying diseases (diabetes and coronary heart disease) and blood routine test are developed for predicting the future requirement of oxygen support in mild COVID-19 cases.

Prognostic value of liver biochemical parameters for COVID-19 mortality

“…To reduce the COVID-19-related death, numerous studies focus on the risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. Liver biochemical parameters such as AST and LDH have been identified as predictors for the prognosis of COVID-19 patients in some studies [1] , [46] , while their prognostic values in other studies are not statistically significant [47] , [48] . A comprehensive evaluation of the association between liver biochemical parameters and COVID-19 mortality is needed to identify those COVID-19 patients at high risk and finally to prevent fatal outcomes.…”

A summary of the diagnostic and prognostic value of hemocytometry markers in COVID-19 patients

“…White blood cell numbers summarized in Table 1 indicate that WBC was decreased or normal in COVID-19 patients; however, in severe cases the WBC was increased when compared to the non-severe cases [5], and such an increase was even more frequent in critical patients [6]. In the largest cohort of 1099 confirmed COVID-19 patients, leukocytosis was seen in over 25% of the most severe cases [7].…”

“…Most smaller studies not included in Table 1 drew the same conclusion but with a few exceptions. For example, several studies reported neutrophilia present in COVID-19 patients even from the early stages of hospitalization [11,22], especially in severe cases [5,18,19,25]. Hu et al found that even within the severe group there was variability, with 87.5% of critical patients having neutrophilia [6].…”

Brazilian Nursing Process Research Network contributions for assistance in the COVID-19 pandemic

“…As the pandemic progresses, it is observed that people have manifested signs and symptoms that present themselves in a clinical spectrum representative of different levels of severity. For this reason, the clinical picture of COVID-19 has been classified into mild, moderate, severe, and critical (23)(24) .…”