Increasing molecular diagnostic capacity and COVID-19 incidence in Brazil

Grotto, Rejane Maria Tommasini; Lima, Rodrigo Santos; Almeida, Gabriel Berg de; Ferreira, Cláudia Pio; Guimarães, Raúl Borges; Pronunciate, Micheli; Azevedo, E.; Catão, Rafael de Castro; Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco

doi:10.1017/s0950268820001818

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This group daily catches, from the epidemiological reports of each state, the number of confirmed cases and death by SARS-CoV-2 and make it publicly available. Because of the recognition of SARS-CoV-2 as a pandemic by the WHO, laboratory certification in Brazil ranged from few laboratories to 26, in eight weeks since the beginning of the epidemic; the majority is located at São Paulo State [ 14 ]. Data reporting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) is mandatory in Brazil.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2021

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Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2021

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“…Araquara and Barretos). Grotto et al [ 5 ] showed that molecular diagnosis increased in São Paulo State over the epidemiological weeks, but it does not match the much higher increase in the number of cases, challenging diagnostic capacity and, therefore, accurate and timely health surveillance.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We aimed to study COVID-19 advance in all these regions by analysing new confirmed cases per day (after the first case of COVID-19 in Brazil) and calculating the effective reproduction number ( R t ) of SARS-CoV-2 over time. Also, daily new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) and its R t number were estimated as an alternative way to follow the temporal evolution of the disease in a country still struggling to increase testing capacity [ 5 ].…”

Section: Background and Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil

et al. 2020

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Two hundred days after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the epidemic has rapidly spread in metropolitan areas and advanced throughout the countryside. We followed the temporal epidemic pattern at São Paulo State, the most populous of the country, the first to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, and the one with the most significant number of cases until now. We analysed the number of new cases per day in each regional health department and calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time. Social distance measures, along with improvement in testing and isolating positive cases, general population mask-wearing and standard health security protocols for essential and non-essential activities, were adopted and impacted on slowing down epidemic velocity but were insufficient to stop transmission.

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“…It comprises all severe hospitalized cases related to respiratory viruses whose notification is compulsory in Brazil. It has been a good thermometer to catch the disease spatiotemporal dynamics in the country, since it has struggled with an insufficient capacity of molecular diagnosis and fast tests 21 . The information available does not distinguish between imported and autochthonous cases.…”

Section: Reported Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A snapshot of a pandemic: the interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil

Ferreira

Marcondes

Melo

et al. 2021

Preprint

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SummaryIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, most governments around the world implemented some kind of social distancing policy in an attempt to block the spreading of the virus within a territory. In Brazil, this mitigation strategy was first implemented in March 2020 and mainly monitored by social isolation indicators built from mobile geolocation data. While it is well known that social isolation has been playing a crucial role in epidemic control, the precise connections between mobility data indicators and epidemic dynamic parameters have a complex interdependence. In this work, we investigate this dependence for several Brazilian cities, looking also at socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence it. As expected, the increase in the social isolation indicator was shown to be related to the decrease in the speed of transmission of the disease, but the relation was shown to depend on the urban hierarchy level of the city, the human development index and also the epidemic curve stage. Moreover, a high social isolation at the beginning of the epidemic relates to a strong positive impact on flattening the epidemic curve, while less efficacy of this mitigation strategy was observed when it has been implemented later. Mobility data plays an important role in epidemiological modeling and decision-making, however, we discuss in this work how a direct relationship between social isolation data and COVID-19 data is hard to be established. Understanding this interplay is a key factor to better modeling, for which we hope this study contributes.

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Increasing molecular diagnostic capacity and COVID-19 incidence in Brazil

Cited by 10 publications

References 14 publications

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil

A snapshot of a pandemic: the interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil

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