In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

Sweet, William; Menéndez, M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Park, Joseph; Marra, John J.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0117.1

Cited by 30 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…However, there are qualitative linkages to economic impacts. For example, for Superstorm Sandy, the storm surge that caused the majority of the economic damage was likely made worse by climatechange-induced sea-level rise (Sweet et al 2016). Similarly, there is evidence linking increases in wildfires in the western United States to climate change (Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe 2014;Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009).…”

Section: Economic Lossmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, greater hurricane intensity and more extreme precipitation events increase flooding risk (Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe 2014). Third, sealevel rise results in more significant storm surge and extreme tidal flooding that can impact infrastructure and water quality (Sweet et al 2016). The combination of these factors increases the risk of coastal hazards and the associated health effects (Bell et al 2016).…”

Section: Population Of Concernmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is an increasing trend in sunny day flooding for many parts of the United States. Since 1994, the risk of nuisance flooding has increased by over 500% for Miami, FL, due to sea-level rise (Sweet et al 2016).…”

Section: Observed Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Bell

Brown

Conlon

et al. 2018

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

206

122

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Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

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Section: Economic Lossmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Population Of Concernmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Bell

Brown

Conlon

et al. 2018

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

206

122

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“…In addition to long‐term trends, ESL probabilities exhibit seasonal and long‐tidal cycles and climate mode covariability (e.g., Aucan et al, ; Haigh et al, ; Marcos et al, ; Menéndez & Woodworth, ; Wahl & Chambers, ; Woodworth & Menéndez, ), which can enhance flooding when contributing processes align (Sweet et al, ; Thompson et al, ). Diagnosing contributory processes within statistical ESL models can provide a degree of predictability if the processes are deterministic in nature or predictable to some degree by climate models (Menendez et al, ; Menéndez & Woodworth, ; Sweet & Park, ; Sweet et al, ; Widlansky et al, ).…”

Section: Projections Of Extreme Sea Level Change and Associated Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.Plain Language Summary The impacts of sea-level rise pose growing threats to coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems, and decisions made today-in areas like land-use policies, coastal development, and infrastructure investment-will affect exposure and vulnerability for generations to come. Thus, the usability of sea-level science is a pressing concern. Ensuring usability requires grappling with deep uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections, the relationship between long-term trends and the impacts of short-lived extreme events, and the ways in which the physical coast, as well as people and ecosystems along the coast, respond to increasingly frequent flooding. At the same time, it also requires more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement throughout the scientific process, as well as cognizance of the political economy of linking stakeholder-engaged science to action.

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“…Moreover, a combination of a weak AMOC and extreme negative NAO (Piecuch & Ponte, 2015) can also result in short-term elevated coastal sea level and increased flooding along the U.S. East Coast, as recorded, for example, during 2009-2010 (Ezer, 2015;Goddard et al, 2015). Along the southeast U.S. coast, widespread nuisance flooding events commonly coincide with extremely low transport by the Florida Current (Baringer et al, 2017;Sweet et al, 2016), given that variations in the Florida Current transport can amount to~10 Sv (Meinen et al, 2010;Schott et al, 1988). In fact, disruption in the Florida Current flow caused by offshore forcing from hurricanes has been acknowledged as a known remote source for elevated sea level events that can threat the southeast U.S. coast (Ezer, 2018;Ezer & Atkinson, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Caused the Accelerated Sea Level Changes Along the U.S. East Coast During 2010–2015?

Domingues

Goñi

Baringer

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Accelerated sea level rise was observed along the U.S. eastern seaboard south of Cape Hatteras during 2010–2015 with rates 5 times larger than the global average for the same time period. Simultaneously, sea levels decreased rapidly north of Cape Hatteras. In this study, we show that accelerated sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was predominantly caused by a ~1 °C (0.2 °C/year) warming of the Florida Current during 2010–2015 that was linked to large‐scale changes in the Atlantic Warm Pool. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was caused by an increase in atmospheric pressure combined with shifting wind patterns, with a small contribution from cooling of the water column over the continental shelf. Results presented here emphasize that planning and adaptation efforts may benefit from a more thorough assessment of sea level changes induced by regional processes.

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In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

Cited by 30 publications

References 9 publications

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

What Caused the Accelerated Sea Level Changes Along the U.S. East Coast During 2010–2015?

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