Improved detection of preeruptive seismic velocity drops at the Piton de La Fournaise volcano

Abstract

The unexpected 2014 and 2015 Ontake (Japan) and Calbuco (Chile) eruptions proved that improving volcanic eruption prediction is still a great challenge. Decreases of seismic velocities of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano inferred from seismic noise correlations have been shown to precede eruptions. However, seismic velocities are strongly influenced by rainfall and subsequent pore pressure perturbations. Here we increase the detection of precursory seismic velocity changes to an eruption by removing the effects of pore pressure changes. During 2011–2013, the volcano exhibits a low eruptive activity during which we observe seismic velocity variations well correlated with rainfall episodes. We estimated the transfer function between fluid pressure and seismic velocity changes. We use these results to correct seismic velocity change time series for pore pressure changes, due to rainfall and found a preeruptive velocity drop (0.15%) associated with the 21 June 2014 eruption that was undetected before correction.

Response of hydrothermal system to stress transients at Lassen Volcanic Center, California, inferred from seismic interferometry with ambient noise

“…In contrast to the seismicity analysis, continuous geodetic measurements have revealed seasonal deformation and long-term subsidence in and around the LVC. Recent studies document that the LVC has been subsiding since at least the 1990s (Poland et al 2004;Parker et al 2016). A number of models for the subsidence have been proposed, including crustal extension and cooling magma.…”

Volcanic, Coseismic, and Seasonal Changes Detected at White Island (Whakaari) Volcano, New Zealand, Using Seismic Ambient Noise

“…Recent studies have tried to apply corrections for changes induced by rainfall (e.g., Budi-Santoso & Lesage, 2016;Lecocq et al, 2017;Rivet et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2017) and thermoelastic strain (e.g., Lecocq et al, 2017). Recent studies have tried to apply corrections for changes induced by rainfall (e.g., Budi-Santoso & Lesage, 2016;Lecocq et al, 2017;Rivet et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2017) and thermoelastic strain (e.g., Lecocq et al, 2017).…”

“…These include coseismic and postseismic changes following tectonic earthquakes (e.g., Chen et al, 2010;Heckels et al, 2018;Lesage et al, 2014;Minato et al, 2012), rainfall (e.g., Hillers et al, 2014;Rivet et al, 2015;Sens-Schönfelder & Wegler, 2006), atmospheric pressure loading (e.g., Niu et al, 2008;Silver et al, 2007), atmospheric-temperature-induced thermoelasticity (e.g., Hillers et al, 2015;Richter et al, 2014), tidal modulation (e.g., Takano et al, 2014;Yamamura et al, 2003), and artificial changes related to variation in the noise source (e.g., Hillers & Ben-Zion, 2011;Snieder, 2006). These include coseismic and postseismic changes following tectonic earthquakes (e.g., Chen et al, 2010;Heckels et al, 2018;Lesage et al, 2014;Minato et al, 2012), rainfall (e.g., Hillers et al, 2014;Rivet et al, 2015;Sens-Schönfelder & Wegler, 2006), atmospheric pressure loading (e.g., Niu et al, 2008;Silver et al, 2007), atmospheric-temperature-induced thermoelasticity (e.g., Hillers et al, 2015;Richter et al, 2014), tidal modulation (e.g., Takano et al, 2014;Yamamura et al, 2003), and artificial changes related to variation in the noise source (e.g., Hillers & Ben-Zion, 2011;Snieder, 2006).…”

Seasonal Crustal Seismic Velocity Changes Throughout Japan

“…Similar to geodetic observations (Heki, ), crustal seismic velocities are affected by external environmental perturbations, such as rainfall (Hillers et al, ; Meier et al, ; Sens‐Schönfelder & Wegler, ; Tsai, ), thermoelastic stress (Hillers et al, ; Meier et al, ), and atmospheric pressure (Silver et al, ). In volcanic areas, correction of these environmental seismic velocity perturbations improves the detection capability of precursors to volcanic eruptions (Rivet et al, ).…”