Implementasi Data Mining Prediksi Penjualan Produk Semen Menggunakan Metode Linear Regression (Studi Kasus PT. Toyo Mortar Indonesia)

Abstract

The cement industry in Indonesia plays a vital role in infrastructure development and the construction sector. PT. Toyo Mortar Indonesia, established in 2015 in the Tangerang industrial area, focuses on the production of instant mortar cement. However, the national cement industry faces the challenge of declining sales due to the pandemic, which has affected people's purchasing power and slowed down property and infrastructure projects. To achieve future growth potential, the right strategy is needed in sales planning. This study implements data mining using the linear regression method with the RapidMiner application to predict cement product sales. The data used includes historical sales data and product information from PT. Toyo Mortar Indonesia. In the tests conducted, the data was processed using 12 variables, of which 10 variables influenced the prediction results: TM-168, TM-178, TM-188, TM-189, TM-198, UM-100, UM-101, UM BIRU, raw materials, and other sales. The test results show that the Linear Regression method can predict cement product sales with an average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 493,125.701 with a standard deviation of 126,330.525. The average Absolute Error is 303,270.965 with a standard deviation of 46,207.586, and the average relative error is 1.89% with a standard deviation of 0.36%, indicating very good prediction accuracy. This can help the company in making decisions related to sales planning using the available sales data.