Impacto del calentamiento global en la distribución y supervivencia del pinsapo (Serranía de Ronda)

Gutiérrez-Hernández, Oliver

doi:10.21138/bage.2532

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…Benefiting from future climate change, a large number of currently unoccupied areas in southern and western Sichuan will be potentially suitable for A. recurvata (Figure 4a). On the other hand, Liu et al (2018) found at the genus level that the reduction in distribution area under the RCP 8.5 scenario was significantly higher than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. Although our projections for most species were consistent with this general finding, for A. squamata, the net loss of CSAs under the RCP 4.5 scenario was predicted to be twice as large as that under the RCP 8.5 scenario (Figure 5a).…”

Section: Partial Migrationmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Generally, isothermality is regarded as the most decisive factor for firs in the MSWC (Chhetri et al, 2018;Liu et al, 2018).…”

Section: Key Factors Shaping Species Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Full migration trend of the genus Abies as highlighted by Liu et al (2018) andShao et al (2017). Benefiting from future climate change, a large number of currently unoccupied areas in southern and western Sichuan will be potentially suitable for A. recurvata (Figure 4a).…”

Section: Partial Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The latest future projections of fir species worldwide based on SDMs generally have indicated an overall decline in their habitat area and a northward migration trend, such as in Europe (e.g. Dyderski et al, 2018;Gutiérrez Hernández, 2018;Thurm et al, 2018), North America (e.g. Sáenz-Romero, Rehfeldt, Duval, & Lindig-Cisneros, 2012) and East Asia (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To our knowledge, a few studies have compared current and future suitable habitats of firs in China at the genus level by SDMs, and they suggest that the ranges of firs will shrink and shift northward under future ACC (Liu, Wang, He, & Zhang, 2018;Shao, Zhang, Phan, & Xiang, 2017). Regrettably, when these SDMs were conducted, the influence of migration ability was ignored, and differences among species were masked by modelling the whole genus.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Liao

Zhang

Nobis

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

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Section: Partial Migrationmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Generally, isothermality is regarded as the most decisive factor for firs in the MSWC (Chhetri et al, 2018;Liu et al, 2018).…”

Section: Key Factors Shaping Species Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Partial Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Liao

Zhang

Nobis

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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The history of Abies pinsapo during the Holocene in southern Spain, based on pedoanthracological analysis

Pardo-Martínez

Zotano

Olmedo-Cobo

2021

Veget Hist Archaeobot

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The aim of this research is to reconstruct the ancient distribution area of Abies pinsapo Boiss. (Spanish fir) in the Serranía de Ronda region, southern Spain, during the Holocene. The main method was pedoanthracological analysis, the study of non-archaeological charcoal found in natural soils. In this research a total of 37 soil excavations were done in several mountain ranges with potentially favourable places for firs to have grown in the past. Specific sites and places such as hillsides, endorheic basins (with no outflow), sinkholes, summits and mountain passes were selected on the basis of evidence from a range of different sources including ancient documents, pollen studies and species distribution models. The soil samples collected from these sites were prepared in the laboratory and the charcoal was identified and radiocarbon dated. Statistical and cartographic analyses were also done. The study revealed evidence of past populations of Abies sp. in places where it is no longer found today. A total of 47 different chronologies were obtained from these sites with ages ranging between 9,931 cal bp and 78 cal bp. In addition, the wide variations in the charcoal values enabled us to make an initial estimate of the importance of ancient forest fires in different places in the Serranía de Ronda. When this information has been considered with all the other available data sources, it will be an essential resource for the efficient management of relict fir woods in southern Spain.

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Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened tree Abies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

et al. 2020

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Impacto del calentamiento global en la distribución y supervivencia del pinsapo (Serranía de Ronda)

Cited by 13 publications

References 101 publications

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

The history of Abies pinsapo during the Holocene in southern Spain, based on pedoanthracological analysis

Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened tree Abies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

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