“…It is tempting to use this result to weigh in on the discussion regarding the relative merits of the kinematic formulation versus the diabatic and Lagrangian cold point) of cloud probability from four data sources: kinematic trajectories using MERRA temperature and winds (blue bars), diabatic trajectories using MERRA temperature, winds, and total diabatic heating rates (gray), kinematic trajectories using GFS temperature and winds (red), and kinematic trajectories using ERA-interim temperature and winds (black). Shown are explained variances during boreal summer formulation [Danielsen, 1961;Schoeberl et al, 2003;Ploeger et al, 2010Ploeger et al, , 2011Schoeberl and Dessler, 2011]; however, diabatic heating rates from MERRA have known weaknesses-particularly during summer [Bergman et al, 2013;Wright and Fueglistaler, 2013]. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in the cloud predictions by the four data sets during winter (not shown; seven-season averages of r 2 are in the range 0.90-0.91 for all four data sources).…”