Impact of the 2003 Heatwave on All-Cause Mortality in 9 French Cities

Abstract

The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

“…Numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the short-term effects of changes in ambient temperature on mortality, and various study designs have been used to characterize or quantify the relationships, including time series (Curriero et al 2002;Goldberg et al 2011;Hajat et al 2005;Hajat et al 2002;Huynen et al 2001;LeTertre et al 2006;Saez et al 2000) and related case-crossover designs (Bell et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2006). The objectives of these studies were related to answering questions regarding triggering mechanisms, such as "Do the number of adverse health events increase when temperature increases or decreases?…”

“…Time series studies have been used to assess the effects of heat-and cold-waves on human mortality in single or multiple locations (Braga et al 2001;Curriero et al 2002;Hajat et al 2002;LeTertre et al 2006;Saez et al 1995). More often than not, grouped population data on a health outcome, such as non-accidental mortality, are obtained in a specific geographical region over a specific period of time.…”

“…Among the first articles to mention this association were Dr. Thomas Short's "On the Weather and Meteors" (1750) The relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality continues to be a subject of interest for scientists, as well as the public, with many researchers quantifying the association or making comparisons between different regions or years. Within the current context of global warming, the importance of the effects of temperature on human health has been underscored by extreme events, such as the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe (Conti et al 2007;Garssen et al 2005;LeTertre et al 2006;Schar and Jendritzky 2004;Simon et al 2005;Vandentorren et al 2004) or the 1995 Chicago heat-wave (Cervantes 1996;Jones 1996;Kaiser et al 2007;Semenza et al 1996;Whitman et al 1997). …”

“…A total of 12 papers fulfilled these criteria, of which nine provided quantitative results (Ballester et al 1997;Braga and Zanobetti 2002;Curriero et al 2002;Gemmell et al 2000;Hajat et al 2005;Hajat et al 2002;Huynen et al 2001;Pattenden et al 2003;Saez et al 2000) and three more addressed the same relationship but in the context of a heat wave (LeTertre et al 2006;Rooney et al 1998;Sartor et al 1995). All of the selected studies used the time series design.…”

“…All of these studies investigated the acute effects of weather on health, and were developed to determine whether changes in temperature were associated with increased counts of mortality. Because of relatively small effects of concurrent day (or previous days) temperature, the target populations were selected from large urban centers (Ballester et al 1997;Braga and Zanobetti 2002;Curriero et al 2002;Hajat et al 2005;Hajat et al 2002;LeTertre et al 2006;Pattenden et al 2003;Saez et al 2000) or sometimes from even larger areas (Gemmell et al 2000;Huynen et al 2001;Rooney et al 1998;Sartor et al 1995), where measures of ambient temperature were available from meteorological stations, usually located at airports.…”