Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Benjamin A.; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiao; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.011

Cited by 84 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Statistical data have shown that the incidences of HS and HSinduced deaths are increasing each year. However, the existing data are limited to some cities or provinces with small sample sizes, and as a result, they have limited reference value [19][20][21][22]. Currently, large-scale HS epidemiology data are still lacking in China.…”

Section: Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of heat stroke in China

et al. 2020

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Heat stroke (HS) is a fatal disease caused by thermal damage in the body, and it has a very high mortality rate. In 2015, the People's Liberation Army Professional Committee of Critical Care Medicine published the first expert consensus on HS in China, Expert consensus on standardized diagnosis and treatment for heat stroke. With an increased understanding of HS and new issues that emerged during the HS treatment in China in recent years, the 2015 consensus no longer meet the requirements for HS prevention and treatment. It is necessary to update the consensus to include the latest research evidence and establish a new consensus that has broader coverage, is more practical and is more in line with China's national conditions. This new expert consensus includes new concept of HS, recommendations for laboratory tests and auxiliary examinations, new understanding of diagnosis and differential diagnosis, On-site emergency treatment and In-hospital treatment, translocation of HS patients and prevention of HS.

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Section: Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of heat stroke in China

et al. 2020

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“…Thus, more studies should be extended to take account of the whole range of effects associated with ambient temperature. Some studies have been published concerning the impact of daily ambient temperature on mortality or morbidity [14,15]. However, those approaches failed to consider the differences in age, resulting in incomplete analysis of information.…”

Section: Of 12mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China

Jin

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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The ambient temperature–health relationship is of growing interest as the climate changes. Previous studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity, however, there is little literature available on the ambient temperature effects on year of life lost (YLL). Thus, we aimed to quantify the YLL attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature. We obtained data from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017 of 70 counties in Hunan, China. In order to combine the effects of each county, we used YLL rate as a health outcome indicator. The YLL rate was equal to the total YLL divided by the population of each county, and multiplied by 100,000. We estimated the associations between ambient temperature and YLL with a distributed lag non-linear model (DNLM) in a single county, and then pooled them in a multivariate meta-regression. The daily mean YLL rates were 22.62 y/(p·100,000), 10.14 y/(p·100,000) and 2.33 y/(p·100,000) within the study period for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease death. Ambient temperature was responsible for advancing a substantial fraction of YLL, with attributable fractions of 10.73% (4.36–17.09%) and 16.44% (9.09–23.79%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. However, the ambient temperature effect was not significantly for respiratory disease death, corresponding to 5.47% (−2.65–13.60%). Most of the YLL burden was caused by a cold temperature than the optimum temperature, with an overall estimate of 10.27% (4.52–16.03%) and 15.94% (8.82–23.05%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. Cold and heat temperature-related YLLs were higher in the elderly and females than the young and males. Extreme cold temperature had an effect on all age groups in different kinds of disease-caused death. This study highlights that general preventative measures could be important for moderate temperatures, whereas quick and effective measures should be provided for extreme temperatures.

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“…The assumption for the population projection for Germany under different SSPs are medium fertility, low mortality, medium migration and high education for SSP1; medium fertility, medium mortality, medium migration and medium education for SSP2; low fertility, high mortality, low migration and low education for SSP3; low fertility, medium mortality, medium migration and polarised education for SSP4; and high fertility, low mortality, high migration and high education for SSP5 [37]. Location-specific population projections were calculated by taking the sum of the populations of each grid cell covering the area of the location, a method used previously [16]. Additionally, we corrected the obtained projected population for bias by extracting the population for the year 2010 from the NCAR dataset and comparing it with the population record of the same year from the German census authority [26] in order to find the locationspecific correction factor.…”

Section: Population Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There exists evidence that a warming climate would result in higher future heat-related mortality [11][12][13][14]. Several studies also show an increasing impact of climate change on heat-related cause-specific mortality burden, such as cardiovascular and respiratory causes [15,16]. Yet, with increasing temperatures and assuming no adaptation of the future population, cold-related mortality burden will decrease in the future [8,[17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Rai

Breitner

Wolf

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher coldrelated deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change.Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century.Methods. We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083-2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990-2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging.Results. The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17. 35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths.Conclusion. The elderly population (age 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age<75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat-and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adapta...

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Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

Cited by 84 publications

References 44 publications

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of heat stroke in China

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of heat stroke in China

The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

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