Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin, Iran

Hadi, Syamsul; Kisi, Özgür; Amirataee, Babak

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2091-z

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Climatic variability and irregular precipitation in the semi-arid area of north-western Iran have always led to significant fluctuations in Lake Urmia water levels, with the last maximum being reached in the mid-1990s (Fathian et al 2014;Jalili et al 2016;Taravat et al 2016). Nevertheless, during the last few decades, a substantial decrease in precipitation, higher air temperatures and persistent drought periods have been recorded (Delju et al 2013;Razmara et al 2013;Shadkam et al 2016;Taravat et al 2016;Sanikhani et al 2017;Arkian et al 2018). Consequently, direct inflow into the lake has diminished while the evaporation rate increased, in turn leading to increased water demand by the agricultural sector (ULRP 2015).…”

Section: Causes Of Lake Urmia's Desiccationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous work around the unfolding environmental disaster at Lake Urmia has largely focused on its water regime, water level fluctuations, ecological consequences, causes and possible actions to revive the lake (Fathian et al 2014;Tourian et al 2015;ULRP 2015;Shadkam et al 2016;Taravat et al 2016;Bavil et al 2018;Ghale et al 2017;Jeihouni et al 2017;Sanikhani et al 2017;Soudi et al 2017;Taheri et al 2019), as the need for restoration measures has sparked international attention. However, the manifold consequences of the disaster and their impact on people living in rural settlements around the lake, as well as individual or communal adaptation strategies, have barely been investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

2020

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During the last 20 years, Lake Urmia, once recognised as one of the largest hypersaline lakes on the planet, has suffered from severe environmental degradation. As a result of climate change and human activities, the lake has been largely desiccated. Previous work around the unfolding environmental disaster mainly focused on Lake Urmia's water regime, water level fluctuations, crisis causes and possible actions to revive its fortunes. However, there has been little discussion on the prevailing socioeconomic consequences for rural livelihoods affected by the disaster. This paper investigates the impacts of the desiccation on rural households and analyses the occurrence and different forms of local villagers' coping strategies. We present the findings of field research in the region, whereby open and semistructured interviews, with both regional experts from different institutions and local residents, were conducted. Evidence from this study suggests that rural communities near the lake are considerably dependent on the lake basin's ecosystem services, such as water availability, clean air, soil and local climate regulation-all of which are heavily threatened by progressive environmental degradation. In particular, tourism decline and losses in agriculture have already led to emigration to larger cities, presenting challenges for both rural and urban infrastructures. Overall, the vulnerability of rural households to the crisis was found to be high for reasons such as poverty, lack of income alternatives and a lack of institutional mitigation and adaptation policies.

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Section: Causes Of Lake Urmia's Desiccationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

2020

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“…Several climate projection scenarios that show a decrease in water levels and drought potential have been carried out on Lake Urmia in Iran by Mahsafar et al (2014) and Sanikhani et al (2018) as well as on the Great Lakes in the United States by Angel and Kunkel (2010). Meanwhile, there have been other climate projection scenarios that show increased air temperature, e.g., Lake Guiers in Senegal by Tall et al (2017), the Great Lakes in the United States by Rao et al (2012), and Lake Chad in Africa by Mahmood et al (2019), with increases ranging from 10 to 25% for rainfall or 0.5-2.0 °C for air temperature.…”

Section: Water Level Simulation Of Lake Toba and Utilization Of General Circulation Models (Gcm S )mentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021

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This research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

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“…This climate change information for the basin and the input from the HAD-CM3 model are subsequently used to simulate climate change conditions for future periods. Thus, the LARS-WG model is considered a black box model [36][37][38].…”

Section: Lars-wg Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Bridging Future Irrigation Deficits Utilizing the Shark Algorithm Integrated with a Climate Change Model

et al. 2019

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Climate change is one of the most effectual variables on the dam operations and reservoir water system. This is due to the fact that climate change has a direct effect on the rainfall–runoff process that is influencing the water inflow to the reservoir. This study examines future trends in climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation as an important predictor to minimize the gap between water supply and demand. In this study, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period between 2046 and 2065, in the context of climate change, based on the A1B scenario and the HAD-CM3 model. Runoff volume was then predicted with the IHACRES model. A new, nature-inspired optimization algorithm, named the shark algorithm, was examined. Climate change model results were utilized by the shark algorithm to generate an optimal operation rule for dam and reservoir water systems to minimize the gap between water supply and demand for irrigation purposes. The proposed model was applied for the Aydoughmoush Dam in Iran. Results showed that, due to the decrease in water runoff to the reservoir and the increase in irrigation demand, serious irrigation deficits could occur downstream of the Aydoughmoush Dam.

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Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin, Iran

Cited by 15 publications

References 36 publications

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

Toward Bridging Future Irrigation Deficits Utilizing the Shark Algorithm Integrated with a Climate Change Model

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