Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects

Williams, Terry; Klakegg, Ole Jonny; Walker, Derek H.T.; Andersen, Bjørn; Magnussen, Ole Morten

doi:10.1002/pmj.21259

Cited by 97 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The taxonomy used by the authors is varied: preliminary signal (Nikander & Eloranta, 1997Project Management Institute [PMI], 2013); early warning signs (Kappelman et al, 2006;Sánchez & Pérez, 2004;Williams et al, 2012); warning signs (OGC, 2009); future signs (Hiltunen, 2008). For this study, we adopted the early sign taxonomy.…”

Section: Early Signs In Pmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The studies about early signs in PM were related to project success (Kappelman, Mckeeman, & Zhang, 2006;Sánchez & Pérez, 2004), with issues (Nikander & Eloranta, 1997); with risks (Nikander & Eloranta, 2001); with causes (Nikander, 2002); with frameworks for environmental scanning (Kuosa, 2010); with barriers for detecting them (Williams et al, 2012); and with barriers against effective responses to them (Haji-Kazemi et al, 2015).…”

Section: Early Signs In Pmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Identification of an early sign can greatly contribute to making better decisions in the early stages of a project (Haji-Kazemi, Andersen, & Krane, 2013). Usually, however, project managers do not act upon them (Williams, Klakegg, Walker, Andersen, & Magnussen, 2012). In order to recognize such a sign, besides realizing that something has changed, its meaning must be understood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies (Haji-Kazemi, Andersen, & Klakegg, 2015;Kuosa, 2010;Williams et al, 2012) have assessed early signs management in projects. Stigliani and Ravasi (2012) studied cognitive processes in collective sensemaking in design projects, as Fellows and Liu (2016) assessed cultural influence in sensemaking in projects and innovations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Unknown Unknowns in Innovative Projects: Early Signs Sensemaking

Russo

Sbragia

Abraham

2017

BAR, Braz. Adm. Rev.

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This study aims to understand early signs' sensemaking relevance to identifying unknown unknowns on innovative projects. When managing these projects, early signs of changes in the environment, combined with a sensemaking process, can help identify them prior to their occurrence and mitigate unwanted effects of these uncertainties. To this end, we conducted a field research to assess 16 projects, totaling 35 events representative of this kind of uncertainty. Based on in-depth interviews, we performed an initial qualitative analysis, and then applied nonparametric statistical tests. Early signs perception in cases where external factors may cause the occurrence of unknown unknowns show that this perception and the search for information are relevant to identifying unk unks. Furthermore, some biases, such as overconfidence and unrealistic optimism, can hinder it. There was a high prevalence of project managers detecting early signs of change in their projects at the beginning of the project. However, the majority of perceived early signs can be considered to be the first symptoms of a problem. Thus, as a contribution, we suggest: learning processes, which can provide sensemaking for early signs in unknown unknowns; project managers stimulating their team to be alert to environmental changes that may affect the project; and discussion of early signs perceived by the team during stakeholder management.

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Section: Early Signs In Pmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Early Signs In Pmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Unknown Unknowns in Innovative Projects: Early Signs Sensemaking

Russo

Sbragia

Abraham

2017

BAR, Braz. Adm. Rev.

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“…In general, the specific contribution given by tacit knowledge, that is, by experts about the future development of the project, may concern the following: [1,12,13] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project Management in the Oil & Gas Industry – ABayesian Approach

Caron

Ruggeri

2016

Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online

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Abstract:A reliable "estimate at completion" from the early stage of project execution is essential in order to enable efficient and proactive project management. The nonrepetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders require the use and integration of multiple informative sources in order to provide accurate forecasts. Moreover, in the Oil & Gas industry, projects are characterized by a high level of complexity and financial impact.The article aims at multiple objectives such as introducing the need for the identification and utilization of all the available knowledge in order to improve the forecasting process; developing a Bayesian approach in order to integrate the diverse knowledge sources; exploring the integration of data records and experts' judgment related to the ongoing project; exploring the integration of data records related to projects completed in the past and to the ongoing project; and finally developing a Bayesian model capable of using three different knowledge sources, data records and experts' judgments related to the ongoing project and data records related to similar projects completed in the past.The model has been tested in a set of large and complex projects in the Oil & Gas industry, in order to forecast the final duration and the final cost. The results show a higher forecasting accuracy of the Bayesian model compared to the traditional earned value management (EVM) methodology.

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Instant‐Expertise in Failure Causation: Developing and Presenting a Network of Causes and Recommendations Extracted from Past Failures

Aloisio¹,

Marais²

2018

INCOSE International Symp

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Systems engineering failures like schedule slips, budget overruns, and other setbacks, occur often and can be costly, but the literature provides little guidance on why these failures occur or how to prevent them. In our previous work we argued that systems engineering failures are manifestations of similar underlying problems, and thus leveraged literature on the theory of accident causation, as well as the many accident investigation reports, to understand better how and why project failures occur and potential ways of preventing these failures. We developed a database of over 900 examples of failure causes and over 600 examples of remedial actions. In this paper, we detail our process for building this database into an interactive network‐based solution aid that anyone experiencing problems in their project or organization can access. The interactive solution aid provides the user with “instant expertise” in accident causation and remediation because it provides users with summaries and simplifications of the causes and remediation measures from the failures we studied.

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Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects

Cited by 97 publications

References 29 publications

Unknown Unknowns in Innovative Projects: Early Signs Sensemaking

Unknown Unknowns in Innovative Projects: Early Signs Sensemaking

Project Management in the Oil & Gas Industry – ABayesian Approach

Instant‐Expertise in Failure Causation: Developing and Presenting a Network of Causes and Recommendations Extracted from Past Failures

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