Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The effect of short- and long-term persistence

Khaliq, M. N.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Gachon, Philippe

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.045

Cited by 125 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Because both the NAO index and the EA index are reliable indicators of large-scale moisture and energy flow into northern Europe, it is possible that winter precipitation and the build-up of the winter snow pack subsequently affect streamflow dynamics in the spring and summer melt season. These results agree with results of previous studies from non-glacierized, permafrost dominated catchments in Fennoscandia (Korhonen and Kuusisto, 2010;Wilson et al, 2010), Sub-Arctic Canada (Carey and Woo, 2001;Abdul-Aziz and Burn, 2006;Cunderlik and Ouarda, 2009;Khaliq et al, 2009, Burn et al, 2010, and Alaska (Woo and Thorne, 2008;Brabets and Walvoord, 2009;Hodgkins, 2009) which discuss a similar range of explanations for the observed trends. Burn et al (2010) hypothesized that the decreasing trend in flood magnitudes and occurrences is the results of increased winter and spring temperatures that lead to greater losses of the snowpack before the onset of spring melt.…”

Section: Shifting Hydrology and Hydrological Extremessupporting

confidence: 92%

Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?

Dahlke

Lyon

Stedinger

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Our understanding is limited to how transient changes in glacier response to climate warming will influence the catchment hydrology in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic. This understanding is particularly incomplete for flooding extremes because understanding the frequency of such unusual events requires long records of observation not often available for the Arctic and Sub-Arctic. This study presents a statistical analysis of trends in the magnitude and timing of flood extremes and the mean summer discharge in two sub-arctic catchments, Tarfala and Abisko, in northern Sweden. The catchments have different glacier covers (30 % and 1 %, respectively). Statistically significant trends (at the 5 % level) were identified for both catchments on an annual and on a seasonal scale (3-months averages) using the MannKendall trend test. Stationarity of flood records was tested by analyzing trends in the flood quantiles, using generalized least squares regression. Hydrologic trends were related to observed changes in the precipitation and air temperature, and were correlated with 3-months averaged climate pattern indices (e.g. North Atlantic oscillation). Both catchments showed a statistically significant increase in the annual mean air temperature over the comparison time period of 1985-2009 (Tarfala and Abisko p<0.01), but did not show significant trends in the total precipitation (Tarfala p = 0.91, Abisko p = 0.44). Despite the similar climate evolution over the studied period in the two catchments, data showed contrasting trends in the magnitude and timing of flood peaks and the mean summer discharge. Hydrologic trends indicated an amplification of the streamflow and flood response in the highly glacierized catchment and a dampening of the response in the non-glacierized catchment. The glacierized mountain catchment showed a statistically significant increasing trend in the flood magnitudes (p = 0.04) that is clearly correlated to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. It also showed a significant increase in mean summer discharge (p = 0.0002), which is significantly correlated to the decrease in glacier mass balance and the increase in air temperature (p = 0.08). Conversely, the non-glacierized catchment showed a significant decrease in the mean summer discharge (p = 0.01), the flood magnitudes (p = 0.07) and an insignificant trend towards earlier flood occurrences (p = 0.53). These trends are explained by a reduction of the winter snow pack due to higher temperatures in the winter and spring and an increasing soil water storage capacity or catchment storage due to progressively thawing permafrost.

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Section: Shifting Hydrology and Hydrological Extremessupporting

confidence: 92%

Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?

Dahlke

Lyon

Stedinger

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Results from our study indicate that the total record length in general and particularly the starting and ending date potentially have a large impact on the outcomes of the trend analysis, which opens the need for more detailed investigation of long records and multi-temporal approaches, especially when linking streamflow to multi-decadal climate fluctuations caused by atmospheric circulations (Khaliq et al, 2009;Hannaford et al, 2013). For example, when analyzing the streamflow record of the Stenudden catchment, which offered one of the longest periods of record (starting in 1916), large variability in annual maximum daily flows was observed across decadal time scales.…”

Section: The Effect Of Record Length On Statistical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the variability of cold region flooding

Matti

Dahlke

Lyon

2016

Journal of Hydrology

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s u m m a r yCold region hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with both climate and the cryosphere. Improving knowledge on that complexity is essential to determine drivers of extreme events and to predict changes under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for cold region flooding where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on high flows. This study explores changes in the magnitude and the timing of streamflow in 18 Swedish Sub-Arctic catchments over their full record periods available and a common period . The MannKendall trend test was used to estimate changes in several hydrological signatures (e.g. annual maximum daily flow, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset). Further, trends in the flood frequency were determined by fitting an extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution to test selected flood percentiles for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach.Results highlight shifts from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated flow regimes with all significant trends (at the 5% significance level) pointing toward (1) lower magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest widespread permafrost thawing and are supported by increasing trends in annual minimum daily flows. Trends in selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the full periods of record (significant for only four catchments), while trends were variable over the common period of data among the catchments. An uncertainty analysis emphasizes that the observed trends are highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional hydrological response pattern could be determined suggesting that catchment response to regionally consistent changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

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“…Natural runoff from many rivers has decreased remarkably in recent decades because of the effects of climate change and human activities [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The demand for water resources, however, has increased rapidly because of increasing population, rapid economic development and urbanization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Impacts of Climate, Land Cover Change and Direct Human Activities on Runoff Variations in the Wei River Basin, China

Li¹,

Chang²,

Wang³

et al. 2016

Water

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Previous studies that quantified variations in runoff have mainly focused on the combined impacts of climate and human activities or climate and land cover change. Few have separated land cover change from human activities, which is critical for effective management of water resources. This study aims to investigate the impact of changing environmental conditions on runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model; we examined three categories: climate, land cover change and direct human activities. The study area was the Wei River Basin, a typical arid to semi-arid basin that was divided into five sub-zones (UZ, MZ, DZ, JZ and BZ). Our results showed the following: (1) the calibrated SWAT model produced satisfactory monthly flow processes over the baseline period from 1978 to 1986; (2) compared to the baseline period, the impact of climatic variations decreased and the impact of direct human activities increased from the 1990s to the 2000s, while the impact of land cover change was generally stable; and (3) climatic variations were the main cause of runoff declines over the entire basin during the 1990s and in the UZ, MZ and JZ areas during the 2000s, while direct human activities were most important in the DZ and BZ areas during the 2000s.

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Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The effect of short- and long-term persistence

Cited by 125 publications

References 42 publications

Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?

Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?

On the variability of cold region flooding

Spatiotemporal Impacts of Climate, Land Cover Change and Direct Human Activities on Runoff Variations in the Wei River Basin, China

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