Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers

Khaliq, M. N.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Gachon, Philippe; Sushama, Laxmi; St‐Hilaire, André

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035

Cited by 311 publications

(248 citation statements)

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“…A serious problem in detecting and evaluating trends in hydrological data is the effect of serial dependence [61][62][63][64][65][66][67]. If an autocorrelation exists in a time series, the MK test tends to reject the null According to the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI), average annual rainfalls of less than 600 mm may occur in Slovakia.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is also widely used in environmental science because it is simple, robust, and can cope with missing values and values below a detection limit. A serious problem in detecting and evaluating trends in hydrological data is the effect of serial dependence [61][62][63][64][65][66][67]. If an autocorrelation exists in a time series, the MK test tends to reject the null hypothesis of no trend more often than the specified level of significance [68].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If an autocorrelation exists in a time series, the MK test tends to reject the null hypothesis of no trend more often than the specified level of significance [68]. Methods that consider autocorrelation in trend detection were reviewed by Khaliq et al [65]. In this paper, we used a trend-free pre-whitening method before applying the MK test to detect significant trends.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Zeleňáková

Vido

Portela

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The objective of this paper was to analyze the temporal and spatial trends in annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovakia utilizing 487 gauging station data collected statewide in the period from 1981 to 2013. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test, which has been widely used to assess the significance of trends in hydrological time series, was applied to detect the significant trends. The Theil-Sen (TS) approach was applied to quantify the trend magnitude, and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was used to detect abrupt temporal trend shifts. In general, precipitation data in the study area have not changed during the last 33 years, and there are no big gaps. However, predominantly increasing trends in precipitation time series were found at most of the gauging stations in Slovakia. The results corroborate previous climatic studies in the area of central Europe. In Slovakia, there is evidence of different rain distribution from the monthly point of view. Decreasing trends were detected in December in the northern part of Slovakia, while the central and southern parts revealed increasing trends. Most of the stations showed increasing summer precipitation trends, especially in July. It is expected that the findings of this comprehensive study of precipitation trends over Slovakia will produce more insights for the understanding of the regional hydrological behavior in Slovakia over the last several decades.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Zeleňáková

Vido

Portela

et al. 2017

Water

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“…In this study, the TFPW approach is used to remove the effect of serial correlation before running the Mann-Kendall test. However, the TFPW approach is based on the assumption that the time series of observed and natural streamflow could be adequately described by an autoregressive process of order one (Khaliq et al 2009), which is a debatable assumption because time series of hydrological variables could be better described by various other formulations of the time series models (Salas et al 1980). Although the TFPW approach neglects the effects of higher-order dependencies (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Yellow River: possible causes and implications

Miao

Shi

Chen

et al. 2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The water shortage in the Yellow River, China, has been aggravated by rapid population growth and global climate changes. To identify the characteristics of streamflow change in the Yellow River, approximately 50 years of natural and observed streamflow data from 23 hydrological stations were examined. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to detect trends and abrupt change points. The results show that both the natural and the observed streamflow in the Yellow River basin present downward trends from 1956 to 2008, and the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is generally faster than that of the natural streamflow. Larger drainage areas have higher declining rates, and the declining trends are intensified downstream within the mainstream. The possibility of abrupt changes in observed streamflow is higher than in natural streamflow, and streamflow series in the mainstream are more likely to change abruptly than those in the tributaries. In the mainstream, all the significant abrupt changes appear in the middle and latter half of the 1980s, but the abrupt changes occur somewhat earlier for observed streamflow than for natural streamflow. The significant abrupt change for the observed streamflow in the tributaries is almost isochronous with the natural streamflow and occurs from the 1970s to 1990s. It is implied that the slight reduction in precipitation is not the only direct reason for the streamflow variation. Other than the effects of climate change, land-use and land-cover changes are the main reasons for the natural streamflow change. Therefore, the increasing net water diversion by humans is responsible for the observed streamflow change. It is estimated that the influence of human activity on the declining streamflow is enhanced over time.Key words streamflow; trend; abrupt change; Yellow River, China Causes éventuelles et implications de la variabilité spatio-temporelle des débits du fleuve JauneRésumé La pénurie d'eau dans le fleuve Jaune, en Chine, a été aggravée par la croissance rapide de la population et les changements climatiques. Pour identifier les caractéristiques du changement des débits dans le fleuve Jaune, près de 50 ans de données sur les débits naturels et observés à partir de 23 stations hydrologiques ont été examinés. Les tests de Mann-Kendall et de Pettitt ont été utilisés pour détecter les tendances et les points de changement brusques. Les résultats montrent que tant l'écoulement naturel que l'écoulement observé dans le bassin du fleuve Jaune présentent des tendances à la baisse de 1956 à 2008, et que le taux de diminution du débit observé est généralement plus rapide que celui du débit naturel. Les grandes surfaces de drainage présentent des taux de diminution plus élevés, et les tendances à la baisse sont intensifiés en aval dans le bief principal. La probabilité de changements abrupts dans le débit observé est supérieure à celle de l'écoulement naturel, et la série des débits dans le bief principal est plus susceptible de changer brusquement que celles des affluents...

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“…It might lead to reduction in the trend assessment data (Douglas et al, 2000). Khaliq et al (2009) presented ways to remove serial correlation from hydrologic time series, such as pre-whitening, variance correction and block bootstrap. Apart from trend analysis, long-term variation can be studied by moving statistical distribution (Hanggi and Weingartner, 2011) and multitemporal analysis (Hannaford et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers

Stojković¹,

Prohaska²,

Plavšić

2015

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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Abstract:Water resource has become a guarantee for sustainable development on both local and global scales. Exploiting water resources involves development of hydrological models for water management planning. In this paper we present a new stochastic model for generation of mean annul flows. The model is based on historical characteristics of time series of annual flows and consists of the trend component, long-term periodic component and stochastic component. The rest of specified components are model errors which are represented as a random time series. The random time series is generated by the single bootstrap model (SBM). Stochastic ensemble of error terms at the single hydrological station is formed using the SBM method. The ultimate stochastic model gives solutions of annual flows and presents a useful tool for integrated river basin planning and water management studies. The model is applied for ten large European rivers with long observed period. Validation of model results suggests that the stochastic flows simulated by the model can be used for hydrological simulations in river basins.

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Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers

Cited by 311 publications

References 49 publications

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Yellow River: possible causes and implications

Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers

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