i-HOPE Framework for Predicting Cyber Breaches: A Logit Approach

Abstract

In light of the recent surge in cyber security breaches globally, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) for organizations is of utmost importance. In this paper, we used the CSI-FBI survey questionnaires from 1997 to 2010 and ISO/IEC27001 standard to propose an i-HOPE framework to predict the likelihood of a cyber breach. Generalized Linear Model i.e. Logit approach and CSI-FBI questionnaire data was used to compute and validate our proposed model. Using our i-HOPE framework we conclude that (i) specific security technologies (Firewalls, IDSs, Biometrics, firewalls), can deter only specific types of attacks (ii) reporting of cyber breaches to law enforcing bodies does not deter cyber attacks (iii) increase in percentage of (a) IT budget allocated to security and (b) outsourcing of IT security function decreases the likelihood of an attack.

Improving Cyber Situational Awareness Through Data Mining and Predictive Analytic Techniques

“…Ahn et al (2013) and Wu et al (2013) and Schreiber-ehle and Koch (2012) do not propose a real time algorithm and their system mainly was designed for decision makes to improve CSA and protect their network through those solutions. Also the study by Das et al (2013) follows same path but in different way. In other words they combine decision making process with financial issues in their approach of improvement of CSA.…”

“…Not only previous cyber-attacks should be taken into consideration but also there is always need for an efficient strategy against future cyber-attacks as they are getting more and more sophisticated. FBI and Department of Justice in January 2012, Sony in May 2011 (Aspan and Soh 2011) and Citi Bank in June 2011 were victims of cyber-attacks and it proves that any organizations and businesses regardless of their size can be a potential target for cyber attackers (Das et al 2013).…”

“…i-Hope framework is another approach presented by Das et al (2013) trying to improve CSA by predicting cyber threats through formulation of goals as hypothesis and corroboration of them with mathematical and statistical analysis. Das et al (2013) use CSI/FBI survey as their main resource of raw data and try to prove their hypothesis by applying Generalized Linear Model and it is a mathematical model used to predict uncertainty.…”

“…Das et al (2013) use CSI/FBI survey as their main resource of raw data and try to prove their hypothesis by applying Generalized Linear Model and it is a mathematical model used to predict uncertainty. Das et al (2013) formulate four main hypothesis as follows:…”

Improving Cyber Situational Awareness via Data mining and Predictive Analytic Techniques

“…Cyber-attacks are a new and dynamic phenomenon threatening companies and governments and cyber security experts need to learn from the past cyber-attacks and design a comprehensive strategy preparing companies and governments against current threats and new threats in future. (Das et al 2013) Sony as an entertainment company in May 2011 (Aspan and Soh, 2011), Citi Bank as a financial and banking service in June 2011 (Levik, 2011) and FBI as a law enforcement agency in FBI and Department of Justice in January 2012, Sony in May 2011 (Aspan and Soh, 2011) and…”