How to evaluate raw material vulnerability - An overview

Abstract

Companies, economies and technologies are vulnerable to supply disruptions or price peaks of specific raw materials. Multiple research groups worldwide have proposed methodologies for determining the criticality of raw materials, including assessments on the vulnerability to supply restrictions. These raw material vulnerability assessments use manifold indicators but are not consistent concerning their selection, calculation, interpretation and weighting. Their indicators estimate a raw material's economic importance or its significance for a strategic goal, or they inform regarding the impact of supply disruptions. Here, we provide an overview of 18 vulnerability assessments in 16 recent criticality studies. Our results reveal 18 different vulnerability indicators, among which a set of six indicators is frequently used and therefore might be recommended for decision makers. The range of possible vulnerability assessment results is exemplified by evaluations of the transition metal copper and the rare earth neodymium. Our overview can serve as a starting point for future raw material criticality assessments concerning the selection of vulnerability indicators and appropriate calculation and weighting methods.

Metal Criticality Determination for Australia, the US, and the Planet—Comparing 2008 and 2012 Results

“…The tenth desirable attribute, periodic updating, is served at least in part by the present work. An alternative discussion of methodological challenges in measuring criticality is given by Helbig et al [17].…”

“…Complementary academic studies are rapidly evolving and various versions of criticality methodology have been presented [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17].…”

Taking the Step towards a More Dynamic View on Raw Material Criticality: An Indicator Based Analysis for Germany and Japan

“…The evaluation of the economic importance of different raw materials is especially challenging. This assessment often includes qualitative measures such as the vulnerability of affected value chains [25], complex sectoral economic analyses (based on sectors that might be affected by supply disruptions [13,14]), or qualitative assessments of the raw material substitutability in different industries (see Helbig et al [56] for an overview of different approaches of the evaluation of economic vulnerabilities in recent criticality studies). While concentration measures which are most commonly used for the assessment of supply risks [8] can be quantified over a period of time using time series of production an trade data [57], this is not possible (or would be accompanied with high efforts) with the common multi indicator based approaches for the evaluation of the economic importance.…”

The role of primary processing in the supply risks of critical metals

“…Inspired by the pioneering studies of criticality assessment of raw materials in the US (National Research Council, 2008; U. S. Department of Energy, 2011) and European economies (European Commission, 2010;Moss et al, 2013) against the background of a future transition to a low-carbon society, in recent years there has been an accumulation of methodological developments and case studies on quantifying such criticality (Achzet and Helbig, 2013;Gloser et al, 2015;Helbig et al, 2016). Graedel et al (2015) have now succeeded in fully elucidating the criticality structure of 62 metals and metalloids based on multi-criteria evaluation (Erdmann and Graedel, 2011;Graedel et al, 2012;Nassar et al, 2012) and introducing environmental sustainability in addition to aspects of supply risk and vulnerability of metals use.…”