How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

Abstract

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals, an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs

“…During the WHO consultation process with the broad NTD community, initiated in 2019, NTD modellers were asked to provide insights, using improved models, into the revised targets for the 2021-2030 horizon, inform the technical feasibility of achieving them with current methods, ascertain the most salient risks, and identify the need for alternative and complementary strategies and novel tools. This endeavour, partly coordinated by the NTD Modelling Consortium (https://www.ntdmodelling.org/), and with contributions by other modelling consortia and groups gave rise to a collection of published pieces on dengue, rabies, trachoma, yaws, Chagas disease, gHAT, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), T. solium taeniasis, schistosomiasis, STH, LF, onchocerciasis and scabies (https://gatesopenresearch.org/ collections/ntd), covering 13 of the 20 NTDs currently prioritized by the WHO [36].…”

New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases

“…In this context, quantitative analysis and epidemiological and economic modeling are important tools for better understanding and forecasting the dynamics of NTDs, informing the design of optimally effective intervention and surveillance strategies, and facilitating the evaluation and implementation of new tools. For example, the NTD modeling community was consulted during the formulation of the 2030 targets [ 5 ] and, more recently, partnered with WHO to estimate how disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic impacted NTD programs and assess how remedial strategies could help program recovery [ 6 , 7 ].…”