How global climate change and regional disturbance can expand the invasion risk? Case study of Lantana camara invasion in the Himalaya

Mungi, Ninad Avinash; Coops, Nicholas C.; Krishnamurthy, R.; Rawat, G. S.

doi:10.1007/s10530-018-1666-7

Cited by 50 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…These observations are in agreement with the results of the present study which demonstrated that temperature and precipitation are the two determining factors in the modeling of the distribution of L. camara at the scale of Côte d'Ivoire. Our results also join the work of Mungi et al (2018) who demonstrated that temperature and precipitation represent bioclimatic variables which mainly contribute to the execution of models highlighting the spatial distribution of L. camara. Day et al (2003) and CABI (2020) also noted that climatic descriptors linked to rainfall and temperature play an efficient role in defining the geographic area of L. camara.…”

Section: Dynamics Of Potential Distribution Of Lantana Camarasupporting

confidence: 87%

“…For this, the R software was used (Fukushima, 2013). This value (r <0.80) was chossen because its takes into consideration species ecology and the extreme environmental conditions (Priyanka et Joshi, 2013;Djotan et al, 2018 ;Mungi et al, 2018).…”

Section: Data Analysis and Processing Modeling Process And Model Valimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Qin et al (2016) estimated the potential distribution of this species worldwide. As for Mungi et al (2018), they analyzed the impact of climate change on its distribution in the Himalayas. In Africa, the work of Fandohan et al (2015) analyzed the distribution of this species in the protected areas of Benin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of the potential invasion of <I>Lantana Camara </I>L. (Verbenaceae) an exotic plant species in Côte d'Ivoire from a modeling approach

Pagny¹,

Mevanly²,

Abrou³

et al. 2020

Int. J. Bio. Chem. Sci

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Invasive alien plant species represent a great threat to the integrity of ecosystems. Acquiring information on the dynamics of these species on a cartographic basis constitutes a tool for their sustainable management. Among these species, Lantana camara L., known for its environmental and agronomic impacts, is currently reported in several localities of Côte d'Ivoire. The general objective of this study is to model the ecological niche of this species over the entire country. To do so, 89 points occurrences and 19 current and future bioclimatic variables were collected to model the potential distribution of this species on the basis of the RCP 8.5 scenario as part of the HadGEM2-ES climate model. This is 75% of presence data (67 points) used for model calibration and 25% (22 points) for testing. At the end of the modeling carried out with the MaxEnt software, the areas suitable for the species are characterized by low temperatures and heavy rainfall., under current climatic conditions, approximately 65,782.40 km², or 20% of the national territory, is suitable for the invasion of L. camara. Azagny National Park, Banco National Park, and the Iles Nature Reserve Ehotiles have distributions with high probability of the presence of the species. By 2050, the climate projects high temperatures and low precipitation in the future. The results show that by adapting to this new climatic range, the L. camara proliferation area will increase to 78,036.05 km², or 24% of the national territory. An upward trend, with a rate of change of 18.6, has been observed in the favorable areas of this area. To maintain the normal functioning of ecosystems and the sustainability of ecosystem services, the areas that have been identified as the most vulnerable to the invasion of L. camara must be the subject of control strategies of this species. Keywords: Lantana camara, Species modeling, MaxEnt, Côte d’Ivoire, RCP scenario 8.5.

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Section: Dynamics Of Potential Distribution Of Lantana Camarasupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Data Analysis and Processing Modeling Process And Model Valimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of the potential invasion of <I>Lantana Camara </I>L. (Verbenaceae) an exotic plant species in Côte d'Ivoire from a modeling approach

Pagny¹,

Mevanly²,

Abrou³

et al. 2020

Int. J. Bio. Chem. Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On land and water surface, global mean temperatures have increased over the past three spans [1]. According to the records that have been going for more than a century, the 2000s was found to be the warmest decade while the years 2005 and 2010 were the hottest periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Hydroclimate Variables in the Upper Huai River Basin: Implications of Managing Water Resource for Climate Change Mitigation

Girma

Yan

Wang

et al. 2020

Advances in Meteorology

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The present study attempted to investigate the trends of mean annual temperature, precipitation, and streamflow changes to determine their relationships in the upper Huai river basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope test estimator, and innovative trend detection (ф) (ITA) methods were used to detect the trends. According to the findings, average annual precipitation shows a descending trend (ф = −0.17) in most stations. An increasing trend was found only in Fuyang station (ф = 1.02). In all stations, the trends of mean annual temperature (ф = 0.36) were abruptly increased. During the past 57 years, the mean air temperature has considerably increased by 12°C/10a. The river streamflow showed a dramatic declining trend in all stations for the duration of the study period (1960–2016) (ф = −4.29). The climate variability in the study region affects the quantity of the streamflow. The river streamflow exhibits decreasing trends from 1965 onwards. The main possible reason for the declining stream flow in the study area is the declining amount of precipitation on some specific months due to the occurrence of climate change. The outcomes of this study could create awareness for the policymakers and members of the scientific community, informing them about the hydroclimatic evolutions across the study basin, and become an inordinate resource for advanced scientific research.

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“…Anthropogenic pressures coupled with climate change makes complex the future prediction of species spread. Several authors e.g., (15,(17)(18)(19)(20)(21); have opined that the IAS which were earlier limited to the lower areas are likely to shift towards the higher elevations in the Himalaya. This calls for validation of earlier models as well as multi-locational studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ageratina adenophoraandLantana camarain Kailash Sacred Landscape, India: Current distribution and future climatic scenarios through modeling

Chaudhary

Sarkar

Adhikari

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The western Himalayan region is one of the unique biodiversity hotspots is rapidly getting invaded by alien invasive species and become a major management concern to save many economically and culturally important indigenous endemic species of this region. The present study aims to investigate the probable current and future apposite invaded habitat of Eupatorium ( Ageratina adenophora ) and Lantana ( Lantana camara ) in the Kailash Sacred Landscape-India in response to representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 of global climate change. Intensive field surveys were conducted to collect the presence locations of Eupatorium ( n = 400 ) and Lantana ( n = 250 ) along the altitudinal gradient of 300 to 2500 masl that covers diverse vegetation and landscape features. We performed Principle Component Analysis to nullify the multi-colinearity effect of the environmental predictors followed by M axEnt species distribution model in the current and future climatic scenario of both the species. All current and future model precision for both these species was higher than 0.81 with the area under the curve (AUC). If the climate change continues to follow the higher emission RCP8.5 pathway, Eupatorium will spread 45.3% more of its current distribution area and will spread up to 3024 masl. Whereas, Lantana will spread 29.8% more of its current distribution area and will reach up to 3018 masl. The further distribution of this alien species may cause a serious threat to the local biodiversity results into a change in ecosystem processes and reduced ecosystem services in the area. Therefore, our current and the projected future map of their distribution will be helpful for local managers to take necessary action to overcome the adverse effect of this plant invasion in future.

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How global climate change and regional disturbance can expand the invasion risk? Case study of Lantana camara invasion in the Himalaya

Cited by 50 publications

References 52 publications

Prediction of the potential invasion of <I>Lantana Camara </I>L. (Verbenaceae) an exotic plant species in Côte d'Ivoire from a modeling approach

Prediction of the potential invasion of <I>Lantana Camara </I>L. (Verbenaceae) an exotic plant species in Côte d'Ivoire from a modeling approach

Trends of Hydroclimate Variables in the Upper Huai River Basin: Implications of Managing Water Resource for Climate Change Mitigation

Ageratina adenophoraandLantana camarain Kailash Sacred Landscape, India: Current distribution and future climatic scenarios through modeling

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