How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

Ge, Zi-An; Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Wang, Lu

doi:10.1007/s00376-022-1351-8

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 86 publications

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“…Accordingly, anomalous cyclonic circulations over the WNP would lead to SC rainfall surplus in JA , Li et al 2021b. The related cyclonic/anticyclonic circulations can be influenced by multiple climate systems and external forcings, such as subtropical westerly jet, sea ice over the East Siberian Sea and Antarctic, SST anomalies over the North Atlantic, Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific , Ge et al 2022, Zhou et al 2022, Wang et al 2023a, Xiao et al 2024. Particularly, suggested that the enhanced JA SC rainfall and related cyclonic circulation anomalies can be excited by warm SST anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific (CEP).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Tang,

Zhang,

Luo

2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The South China (SC) late rainy season rainfall (SCLR) is important to people’s livelihoods and properties of this densely populated and economically developed region. Based on observation and reanalysis datasets, this study identifies that the relationship between the SCLR and equatorial Pacific SSTs (EPSSTs) experiences an interdecadal change around the late 1970s. The SCLR is negatively correlated with the eastern EPSSTs during 1948–1977 (the previous epoch) but positively correlated with the central EPSSTs during 1978–2022, especially during the last three decades 1993–2022 (the post epoch). This is due to the interdecadal change in El Niño flavors and EPSSTs-tropical Atlantic SSTs (TASSTs) relationship. With the increasing frequency of central Pacific El Niños in the post epoch, the El Niño-related warm SST anomaly center shifts from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). Correspondingly, the anomalous cyclone exerted by the CEP warming reaches SC and causes rainfall surplus there (westward propagation pathway). In contrast, the EEP warming in the previous epoch can’t influence the SCLR through the westward propagation pathway, but through shifting the westerly jet southward via heating the tropical troposphere. The southward shifted westerly jet crashes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, triggering cyclonic circulations across the northern East Asia and North Pacific, which in turn cause anticyclonic circulations over the western SC and reduce SC rainfall (eastward propagation pathway). On the other hand, the CEP warming in the post epoch barely influence the SCLR through the eastward propagation pathway because of the enhanced negative relationship between EPSSTs and TASSTs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Tang,

Zhang,

Luo

2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2023

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.

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Understanding the 2022 Extreme Dragon-Boat Rainfall in South China from the Combined Land and Oceanic Forcing

Wang,

Xu,

Zeng

et al. 2024

Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci

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How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

Cited by 8 publications

References 86 publications

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Understanding the 2022 Extreme Dragon-Boat Rainfall in South China from the Combined Land and Oceanic Forcing

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