How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector

Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Bojović, Dragana; González-Reviriego, Nube; Nicodemou, Andria; Terrado, Marta; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J.

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100303

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Decadal climate prediction fills the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections and is important for government policy and corporate planning. It is well established that decadal predictions are skilful (Meehl et al ., 2014; Smith et al ., 2019) and climate services are beginning to be developed (Dunstone et al ., 2022; Hermanson et al ., 2022; Solaraju‐Murali et al ., 2022). The main difference between decadal predictions and climate projections is that decadal predictions start from the current state of the climate system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021

Hermanson,

Dunstone,

Eade

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Ocean re‐analyses covering many decades, including those with few observations, are needed to understand climate variability and to initialize and assess interannual to decadal climate predictions. The Met Office Statistical Ocean Re‐Analysis (MOSORA) exploits long‐range covariances to generate full depth re‐analyses of monthly ocean temperature and salinity even from sparse observations. We extend MOSORA by generating an ensemble that samples uncertainties in the long‐range covariances. Initial covariances are taken from model runs and these are improved with observations using an iterative process. We demonstrate that covariances are improved by iteration, and that this procedure, using very sparse observations typical of the 1960s, captures many features of analyses benefiting from modern observation density. We investigate the ensemble spread and find that salinity trends in the covariances from model runs can introduce unexpected changes in the re‐analyses. We nudge the re‐analyses into an ensemble of coupled climate models to produce estimates of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). At 26°N the AMOC shows decadal variability consistent with observations at this latitude and shows signs of a strengthening in recent years. The ensemble spread in AMOC reconstructions increase with time as more observations interact with uncertain covariances. At 45°N the amount of decadal variability in the AMOC varies between the members, but on shorter timescales the variability is similar across the ensemble. At 45°N the AMOC can be better constrained with more observations on the western boundary, but longer continuous observations are needed to improve covariances and reduce uncertainties in the AMOC.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021

Hermanson,

Dunstone,

Eade

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…The components of the Earth System Models that are usually synchronized with the recently observed climate state are the ocean and the atmosphere (Meehl et al, 2014;Boer et al, 2016). Mostly, the studies are interested in predicting user-relevant climate indices for their further application in climate services (Marotzke et al, 2016;Smith et al, 2019;Solaraju-Murali et al, 2022). Several studies that have assessed the prediction skill for the AMOC from the DCPs reported some issues in the initialization of the AMOC (Smith et al, 2013;Kröger et al, 2017;Bilbao et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Polkova,

Swingedouw,

Hermanson

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, providing the hope that synchronizing ocean circulation with observations can improve decadal predictions, notably of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Climate predictions require a starting point which is a reconstruction of the past climate. This is usually performed with data assimilation methods that blend available observations and climate model states together. There is no unique method to derive the initial conditions. Moreover, this can be performed using full-field observations or their anomalies superimposed on the model's climatology to avoid strong drifts in predictions. How critical ocean circulation drifts are for prediction skill has not been assessed yet. We analyze this possible connection using the dataset of 12 decadal prediction systems from the World Meteorological Organization Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. We find a variety of initial AMOC errors within the predictions related to a dynamically imbalanced ocean states leading to strongly displaced or multiple maxima in the overturning structures. This likely results in a blend of what is known as model drift and initial shock. We identify that the AMOC initialization influences the quality of the SPG predictions. When predictions show a large initial error in their AMOC, they usually have low skill for predicting internal variability of the SPG for a time horizon of 6-10 years. Full-field initialized predictions with low AMOC drift show better SPG skill than those with a large AMOC drift. Nevertheless, while the anomaly-initialized predictions do not experience large drifts, they show low SPG skill when skill also present in historical runs is removed using a residual correlation metric. Thus, reducing initial shock and model biases for the ocean circulation in prediction systems might help to improve their prediction for the SPG beyond 5 years. Climate predictions could also benefit from quality-check procedure for assimilation/initialization because currently the research groups only reveal the problems in initialization once the set of predictions has been completed, which is an expensive effort.

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“…impact models for other research disciplines, such as marine biology (Payne et al, 2022) and the agricultural sector (Solaraju-Murali et al, 2022). A compacted review of applications, including a preliminary version of the current study, is presented in O' Kane et al (2023).…”

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confidence: 99%

Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance

van der Laan,

Vlug,

Scaife

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. We present the first study using decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal and long-term simulation of glacier contribution to catchment hydrology and sea level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model, driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 ensembles of initialised decadal climate re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts on the decadal timescale, for respectively 279 reference glaciers and all land-terminating glaciers globally. For comparison, the glacier model is also forced with a simple persistence forecast and general circulation model historical time series and projections, representing the current state of the art. The results from forcing with decadal re-forecasts provide improvement over the other two methods. Simulating single years, especially at short lead times, decadal re-forecasts show the highest Pearson correlations and lowest mean absolute errors, compared to observed mass balance. Simulating cumulative mass balance over full decades for the 279 reference glaciers, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields a decrease in mean absolute error of 18 % and 16 % compared to forcing with persistence forecasts and historical global circulation model simulations, respectively. Globally, comparing average mass balance over the time period 2000–2020, forcing with decadal re-forecasts results in the highest number of regions with ’good fit’ to observations (difference from observed regional mass balance =< 0.1 m w.e.), compared to the persistence and historical climate model forcing. These findings indicate that the use of decadal predictions for glacier modelling is operationally feasible and holds significant potential for future hydrological applications.

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How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector

Cited by 9 publications

References 53 publications

An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021

An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance

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