Hourly-resolution analysis of electricity decarbonization in Spain (2017–2030)

Abstract

Two alternative paths to achieve highly-renewable electricity generation in peninsular Spain are investigated in this paper. Every transition path comprises a description of the installed and decommissioned generation and storage capacities, from 2017 to 2030, as well as a hypothesis on the evolution of the electricity demand. The electricity mix for every hour within the transition path is determined through a dispatch algorithm that prioritízes electricity from renewable energy sources. The simulation is run for 900 different combinations of time series representing the hourly capacity factors of different technologies, as well as the electricity demand. This robust approach allows the evaluation of the transition paths based on the statístícal distribution of several deflned assessment criteria, such as security of supply, C0 2 emissions or renewable share in electricity generation. The feasibility of a Spanish power system with high renewable penetration is investigated not only in a future reference year but throughout the transition path. In particular, a progressive and simultaneous phase-out of nuclear and coal power plants in the short-term is proven to be feasible. Furthermore, the results sensitívity is analyzed including scenarios with a delayed nuclear phase-out, lower hydroelectricity generation due to more frequent and severe droughts caused by climate change and higher annual increment for the electricity demand. Authors Región Spatial resolution Time series Scenario where results are simulated Time-step Aim Rasmussen et al. [27] Europe One no de 8 (2000-2007) No time reference lh Least-cost solution Eriksen et al. [6] Europe One-node-per-country network 8 (2000-2007) No time reference lh Least-cost solution Schlachtberger et al. [7] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2011) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Schlachtberger et al. [49] Europe One-node-per-country network 4 (2011-2014) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Brown et al. [50] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2011) 95% C02 abatement lh Least-cost solution Collins et al. [28] Europe One-node-per-country network 30 (1985-2014) 5 reference scenarios (2030) lh Scenario comparison Güs etal. [51] Europe 15 regions 1 No time reference lh Least-cost solution Brancucci et al. [5] Europe One-node-per-country network 1 (2010) 2025 lh Connolly et al.

Improving Energy Transition Analysis Tool through Hydropower Statistical Modelling

“…This section summarises the main aspects of the tool for transition path analysis introduced in Reference [9]. The model uses an hourly dispatch algorithm based on heuristic rules that prioritise the use of renewable technologies.…”

“…Assessing the viability of a power system in the context of the energy transition requires detailed simulations in order to account for the variability in the different timescales of solar radiation, wind, rain patterns and electricity demand, among others, together with considering the constraints of the available flexible generation and storage systems. In Reference [9], an hourly-resolved tool for transition path analysis was introduced, and employed for analysing energy transition paths in Spain up to 2030. The modelling of the hydropower technology was grounded on maximum capacity together with maximum and minimum reservoir levels, disregarding other constraints affecting hydropower time series dynamics.…”

“…The proposed hydropower statistical model is coupled with the dispatch algorithm for power systems with high renewable energy source (RES) penetration presented in Reference [9], providing an upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool. The results obtained are compared with those obtained in the previous work [9] with two main goals. The first one is the analysis of the influence of the proposed model on the hydropower flexibility, with special emphasis on the observed hydropower hourly gradients.…”

“…The rest of the article is structured as follows. Section 2 provides a brief description of the tool introduced in Reference [9], and summarises the main hypotheses of the model. The proposed methodology for modelling of the hydropower generation in peninsular Spain is introduced in Section 3, and the procedure to obtain feasible hydropower values for an hour coherent with the dynamics observed for this variable in the past is described.…”

“…The proposed methodology for modelling of the hydropower generation in peninsular Spain is introduced in Section 3, and the procedure to obtain feasible hydropower values for an hour coherent with the dynamics observed for this variable in the past is described. In Section 4, the introduced hydropower model is employed to obtain a new set of results for the main transition path described in Reference [9]. Finally, the upgraded version of the tool (equipped with the hydropower model) is employed in Section 5 in order to analyse the transition path of the Spanish power system described in the Spanish NECP for period 2020-2030.…”