Host plant distributions and climate interact to affect the predicted geographic distribution of a Neotropical termite

Cunha, Hélida Ferreira da; Ferreira, Érica D.; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Nabout, João Carlos

doi:10.1111/btp.12555

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The geographic distribution of a species depends on the relationships among the biotic, abiotic, and historical factors, and climate plays a fundamental role in this distribution (Peterson et al 2011;Cunha et al 2018). According to the current map of ecological niche model, this species presented broad climatic suitability area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another troublesome factor is the state of land use in the new potential areas for D. alata (in future scenarios). The ecological niche model used here produces conservative results because other variables such as land use were not considered (Hannah et al 2002;Cunha et al 2018). This is especially important considering that the Cerrado has experienced intense occupation and land use conversion, mainly for grazing and agriculture (e.g., soybeans and sugar cane) (Sawyer 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global warming decreases the morphological traits of germination and environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) in Brazilian Cerrado

et al. 2019

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We experimentally evaluated how different temperatures affect germination of individual seedlings of Dipteryx alata, and estimated the impact of climate change on the species using ecological niche modeling. A total of 240 seeds were randomly distributed among three different temperature treatments (32 ºC, 36 ºC, and 40 ºC), and monitored for 35 days. We measured seven seed traits and estimated the ecological niche of D. alata using a consensus of four methods. The treatment with the highest temperature produced smaller and lighter seedlings. The consensus of ecological niche modeling indicated that are expected to reduce the areas with climates favorable for D. alata in future scenarios. Thus, our two results (experiment and ecological niche modeling) are concordant, and both indicate the impact of global warming on germination (initial stage of the plant) and potential geographic distribution. Moreover, in geographic context, our experiment and ecological niche modeling indicated that north, northwest and central regions of the "Cerrado" are predicted to have lower morphological traits of germination and loss climate favorable area, since these regions are predicted to have higher temperatures (nearly 40 ºC) in future climatic scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming decreases the morphological traits of germination and environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) in Brazilian Cerrado

et al. 2019

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“…Asclepias availability as well as climatic variables, including minimum temperature of the coldest month, as key for structuring the western monarch breeding grounds. These findings add to the increasing body of evidence suggesting that biotic interactions may govern species distributions as strongly as environmental conditions (Dilts et al n.d., Araújo and Luoto 2007, Preston et al 2008, Schweiger et al 2008, de Araújo et al 2014, Fraterrigo et al 2014, Lemoine 2015, da Cunha et al 2018).…”

Section: Who Identifiedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This so-called "climate envelope approach" are based on the Eltonian noise hypothesis, which posits that biotic interactions may be a major driver of abundance at smaller spatial resolutions, but at larger and coarser spatial resolutions the effects of biotic interactions may average out, leaving abiotic factors as the principal drivers (Guisan and Thuiller 2005, Soberon and Nakamura 2009, Elith and Leathwick 2009. Yet recent modelling studies have identified biotic factors as important drivers of species distributions (Dilts et al n.d., Araújo and Luoto 2007, Preston et al 2008, Schweiger et al 2008, de Araújo et al 2014, Fraterrigo et al 2014, Lemoine 2015, da Cunha et al 2018 and SDMs predictions for species response to climate change have yielded contrasting results based upon whether or not biotic factors are included (Preston et al 2008, Schweiger et al 2008, Lemoine 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roles of hostplant availability and quality for the distribution and climate change response of a dietary specialist herbivore

Acosta

Mooney²

2020

Preprint

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Species distributions are recognized to be driven by abiotic factors, but the importance of biotic interactions that provide critical resources is less well understood, especially with respect to variation in critical resource quality. Disentangling the relative importance of these factors – abiotic environment, presence of critical resources and their quality-may be critical to predicting species response to climate change. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to address these questions for the western monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus), a species that obligately feeds upon plants in the genus Asclepias, and for which hostplant quality in this region varies among species by an order of magnitude. We modeled the distribution of 24 Asclepias species to develop and compare three monarch distribution models with increasing levels of ecological complexity: (i) a null model using only environmental factors (a climate envelope model), (ii) a model using environmental factors and Asclepias spp. distribution, (iii) and a model using environmental factors and Asclepias spp. distribution weighted by hostplant quality assessed through a greenhouse bioassays of larval performance. Asclepias models predicted that half of the Asclepias spp. will both expand their ranges and shift their distribution towards higher latitudes while half will contract within the study region. Our performance analysis of monarch models revealed that the climate envelope model was the poorest performing. Adding hostplant distribution produced the best performing model, while accounting for hostplant quality did not improved model performance. The climate envelope model estimated more restrictive contemporary and future monarch ranges compared to both hostplants models. Although all three models predicted future monarch range expansions, the projected future distributions varied among models. The climate envelope model predicted range expansions along the Pacific coast and contractions inland while hostplants models predicted range expansions in both of these regions and, as a result, estimated 14 and19% increases in distribution relative to the climate envelope model, respectively. These results suggest that information on biotic interactions that provide critical resources is needed to predict future species distributions, but that variation in the quality of those critical resources may be of secondary importance.

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“…This so-called "climate envelope approach" is based on the Eltonian noise hypothesis, which posits that biotic interactions may be a major driver of abundance at smaller spatial resolutions, but at larger and coarser spatial resolutions, the effects of biotic interactions may average out, leaving abiotic factors as the principal drivers (Guisan and Thuiller 2005, Elith and Leathwick 2009, Soberon and Nakamura 2009, Fraterrigo et al 2014). Yet, recent modeling studies have identified biotic factors as important drivers of species distributions (i.e., Ara újo and Luoto 2007, Preston et al 2008, Schweiger et al 2008, de Ara újo et al 2014, Lemoine 2015, da Cunha et al 2018, Dilts et al 2019; and SDMs' predictions for species response to climate change have yielded contrasting results based upon the inclusions of biotic factors (Preston et al 2008, Schweiger et al 2008, Lemoine 2015. Accordingly, climate envelope modeling may accurately define the potential niche of a species, but the realized niche, defined in part by species interactions, may differ substantially.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of geographic variation in host plant resources for a specialist herbivore's contemporary and future distribution

Acosta

Mooney

2021

Ecosphere

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Species distributions are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, but the importance of variation in the availability and quality of critical resources is poorly understood. Disentangling the relative importance of these factors-abiotic environment, availability of critical resources, and resource quality-will be important to modeling species current distributions and responses to projected climate change. We address these questions using species distribution models (SDMs) for the western monarch butterfly population (Danaus plexippus), whose larvae feed exclusively on Asclepias species known for their heterogeneous distribution and variation in host quality. We modeled the distribution of 24 Asclepias species to compare three monarch distribution models with increasing levels of complexity: (1) a null model using only environmental factors (climate envelope model), (2) a model using environmental factors and Asclepias availability estimated as species richness, (3) and a model using environmental factors and Asclepias' availability weighted by host plant quality as assessed through a greenhouse bioassay of larval performance. Asclepias models predicted that half of the Asclepias species will expand their ranges and shift toward higher latitudes, while half will contract. These patterns were uncorrelated with host plant quality. Among the three monarch models, the climate envelope model was the poorest performing. Models accounting for host plant availability performed best, while accounting for host plant quality did not improve model performance. The climate envelope model estimated more restrictive contemporary and future monarch ranges compared to both host plant models. Although all three models predicted future monarch range expansions, the projected future distributions varied among models. The climate envelope model predicted range expansions along the Pacific coast and contractions inland. In contrast, the host plant availability and quality models predicted range expansions in both of these regions and, as a result, 14% and 19% increases in distribution (respectively) relative to the climate envelope model. These models do not include other factors affecting monarch persistence. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that accounting for information on host plant availability and response to climate change is necessary to predict future species distributions, but that variation in the quality of those critical resources may be of secondary importance.

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Host plant distributions and climate interact to affect the predicted geographic distribution of a Neotropical termite

Cited by 22 publications

References 45 publications

Global warming decreases the morphological traits of germination and environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) in Brazilian Cerrado

Global warming decreases the morphological traits of germination and environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) in Brazilian Cerrado

Roles of hostplant availability and quality for the distribution and climate change response of a dietary specialist herbivore

Effects of geographic variation in host plant resources for a specialist herbivore's contemporary and future distribution

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