Home, safe home: Cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector

Bengtsson, Elias; Grothe, Magdalena; Lepers, Étienne

doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.12.006

Cited by 13 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Another very interesting aspect of research, indirectly dealing with cyclicality, is associated with the problem of the effectiveness of stimulating it through government interventions (Zhou, 2018) and the presentation of how uncertainty of economic policy affects the housing market (Huang et al, 2018). Discussion concerned with the identification of periodic components, including cyclical component in the time series characterizing the construction market, in particular the housing market are explored in other studies (Bengtsson et al, 2018;Devaney and Xiao, 2017;Fan et al, 2019;Gabauer and Gupta, 2020;Liow and Newell, 2016;Yépez, 2018). As we mentioned above, the ability to determine the phase of the cycle of construction market is of particular assistance in determining the development potential of this market.…”

Section: Construction Market -Analysis Of Effects On the Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries

Mach¹,

Zmarzły²,

Dąbrowski³

et al. 2020

ERSJ

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Purpose: The objective of this study involves the determination of cyclical characteristics that occur on the European construction market. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research implementation process, time-frequency analysis was used to identify and analyze cyclicalities in the construction market. Findings: The results clearly demonstrate the absence of a homogeneous construction market in the investigated countries. The diversity of the European construction market is revealed by the various responses to the periods corresponding to the ups and downs of the economy. Practical Implications: The present research provides grounds for the clear indication of specific countries and cyclical characteristics on the construction market in them to define guidelines suitable for the identification of adequate scenarios for the development of construction markets in them. Originality/value: The conclusion derived from the study is associated with the classification of construction markets and identification of various responses of individual markets to the occurrence of macroeconomic or microeconomic stimuli.

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Section: Construction Market -Analysis Of Effects On the Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries

Mach¹,

Zmarzły²,

Dąbrowski³

et al. 2020

ERSJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our empirical context is the Irish residential real estate auction market in what turns out to be approaching the peak of the bubble. Residential real estate markets are an interesting research context to explore, as such markets are particularly prone to anomalous behavior (Scherbina and Schlushe, 2015), and have significant spillover effects into the banking system (Carmichael and Coën, 2018), and the wider economy (Bengtsson, Grothe and Lepers, 2018). We conjecture that in the height-in-bubble phase of such markets bidder decision making is likely to be dominated by feelings of excitement and mania such that conventional measures of financial risk will not impact on pricing outcomes.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In comparison to other asset pricing bubbles, the banking and macroeconomic impact of residential real estate bubbles are particularly damaging to both the banking system and the wider macroeconomy (e.g. Bengtsson, Grothe andLepers, 2018, Carmichael andCoën, 2018). Scherbina and Schlusche (2012) argue that bubbles are pervasive in residential real estate markets as such markets are dominated by financially unsophisticated households who often develop optimistic views by overextrapolating from a time-series of past price movements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emotions, Uncertainty, Gender and Residential Real Estate Prices: Evidence from a Bubble Market

Ryan¹,

Branigan²

2019

26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference

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This paper investigates the impact of valuation uncertainty on residential property prices near the peak of a bubble. Our hand-collected sample comprises the sequence of bids and gender of the participating bidders at Irish residential real estate auctions, prior to the collapse of a bubble, which when it burst had disastrous implications for the banking system and the economy itself. Portfolios of practitioner-and hedonic pricing model-selected self-similar properties provide benchmark property price estimates and uncertainty is calculated by reference to various measures of dispersion related to prices achieved for comparable properties. We find, in aggregate, auction winners do not shade bids with increased valuation uncertainty. In addition, winning female bidders, in contrast to findings in the extant literature across a wide range of academic disciplines, including experimental bubble markets, are not less risk averse, or more likely to shy away from competitive situations than their male counterparts.

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“…Researches indicate that the real estate market could become the reason of vulnerability or even crisis (Cetkovic et al, 2018). It is stressed that crises related to weaknesses in residential property markets were quite common throughout history (Bengtsson, Grothe, & Lepers, 2018). The risks of financial and real estate crisis grow with globalization processes as markets become more integrated.…”

Section: Main Aspects Of Investing In Real Estatementioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of investing in real estate in EU and non-EU countries based on MCDM

Erdogan

Naumcik

2019

Modern Building Materials, Structures and Techniques (MBMST)

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Investment in real estate is a zoning issue as the real estate market is closely related to economic development and trends in real estate market are considered to be indicators of trends in the whole economy of the country. The goal of this paper is to analyse the main aspects and considerations when investing in real estate, evaluate investment in real estate situation in different EU and non-EU countries and introduce MCDM methods that could be used for selecting a state for investment in real estate. It is identified that when investing in real estate various political, social, economic, environmental and other factors have to be taken into consideration. Analysed examples of EU (Lithuania, Romania, UK) and non-EU (Turkey, China, Russia) countries show different risks and opportunities for investments in real estate. MCDM methods are applicable to evaluate which countries are most attractive for investment in real estate. Described TOPSIS and ARAS methods could be used for assessing states as alternatives when selecting where to invest

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Home, safe home: Cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector

Abstract: Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Cited by 13 publications

References 19 publications

Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries

Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries

Emotions, Uncertainty, Gender and Residential Real Estate Prices: Evidence from a Bubble Market

Evaluation of investing in real estate in EU and non-EU countries based on MCDM

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