High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1658-9

Cited by 28 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Given the importance associated with trend analyses in hydroclimatological research, many techniques have previously been proposed for trend analysis. However, the Mann-Kendall test statistic is widely used (Pohlert 2016) by both Hydrologists (Yue et al 2002) and Climatologists (Fallmann et al 2017). The Mann-Kendall is a nonparametric test statistic, and it has been used in this study after Mann (Mann 1945) and Kendall (Kendall 1975), to detect trends in extreme temperature changes in Zambia.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-model synthesis of future extreme temperature indices over Zambia

Libanda

2020

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Although temperature is one of the most important climate variables to be considered in adapting systems to climate change, its study over Zambia has until recently been largely ignored. A dearth of the literature on future temperature extremes is especially apparent. For the first time, future extreme temperature variability is analysed in Zambia for the period 1961-2100. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test statistic is used at 5% significant level to compute trends. Sen's slope estimator is used to give the magnitude of the observed trends. A two-tailed Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to calculate the significance of the observed changes. What stands out from the findings is that warm days and nights become warmer while cool days and nights are projected to become non-existent by 2100. Additionally, an increase in radiative forcing and time is seen to intensify extreme temperature events. Notably, much of southern Zambia is projected to experience ~ 30% increment in TX90p while the northern half will experience ~ 40% under RCP4.5 by the middle of the century (2021-2050). If the business-as-usual trajectory (RCP8.5) is followed, an intensification of TX90p is observed with ~ 40% in the southern half of the country and ~ 50% in the northern half. These projections are observed to almost double towards the end of the century (2071-2100). The projected increase in warm nights (TN90p) is more over Luapula and Northwestern province while the lowest is observed over the Livingstone/Magoye region. These results provide a foundation for strategic planning purposes to avert losses related to extreme temperature.

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Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Generally, WSDI is projected, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to increase with increase in radiative forcing and time. Many scientists (e.g., Ongoma et al 2018;Fallmann et al 2017) have used PDFs in similar studies.…”

Section: Changes Of Duration Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-model synthesis of future extreme temperature indices over Zambia

Libanda

2020

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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“…The report describes the impacts of climate change scientifically, and it has made vulnerability framework a focus of research for global climate change. Currently, the existing research on climate change vulnerability reflects two main research directions: (1) on the temporal scale, in which the study area is considered as a whole, the trends of the vulnerability are examined on long-term time scales, and holistic suggestions for specific study areas have been proposed [20,21]; (2) on the spatial scale, in which various spatial factors are combined, the differences between vulnerability evaluation results within the study region are evaluated, and different suggestions for different regions have been proposed [22][23][24]. Many vulnerability assessment studies have been conducted on large scales [25], such as Europe [26] and North America [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Assessment of Urban Climate Change Vulnerability during Different Urbanization Phases

Zhou

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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In urban areas, concentrated populations and societal changes intensify the influence of climate change. However, few studies have focused on vulnerability to climate-related risks on the scale of a single urban area. Against this backdrop, we reconstructed a spatial vulnerability framework based on the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change and to integrate the natural and socio-economic factors of urban areas into this framework. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between rapid urbanization and climate change, we studied data from two years that represented different stages of urbanization. The results showed that the index framework was able to reconcile these two concepts to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change. The assessment results indicate that the overall degree of climate change vulnerability exhibits a generally increasing and dispersing trend after rapid urbanization. The increasing trend is influenced by an increase in low-vulnerability areas, and the dispersing trend is influenced by anthropogenic activities caused by rapid urbanization. The changes are reflected in the following observations: 1. The suburbs are affected by their own natural environmental characteristics and rapid urbanization; the vulnerability level has risen in most areas but has declined in certain inland areas. 2. High-vulnerability regions show minor changes during this stage due to the lasting impact of climate change. Finally, the main environmental problems faced by high-vulnerability areas are discussed based on existing research.

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“…There are many studies confirming that land cover has a significant impact on climate (e.g. Fallmann et al, 2017;Huang & Lu, 2015;Solecki & Oliveri, 2004). Some works proved its impact on rather local scales (Cui & Shi, 2012;Früh et al, 2011;Hu & Jia, 2010;Wolters & Brandsma, 2012;Zhang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Climate Projections and Urban Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we hypothesize that the underlying reason largely lies in certain entrance barriers within the IT domain. Sometimes, one can find pointers, for example when Fallmann et al (2017) state that calculations were carried out using Climate Data Operators (CDO) tools. However, the comprehensive know-how is not that straightforward to find.…”

Section: Practical Bottlenecks For Geographers Urban Planners or Stamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

Šmíd¹

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Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also impact hotspots. The processes of global warming and urban population growth make our urban agglomerations vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and costeffective assessment of future climate impact is of high importance. Two major approaches emerge from the literature: i) detailed spatially explicit assessments, and ii) more holistic approaches consistently assessing multiple cities. In this multidisciplinary thesis both approaches were addressed. Firstly, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures of climate projections in the process of urban planning. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localised information on future climate extreme events, these methods are not widely exploited in the process of urban planning. The first part of this research attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatologists. First, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the spatial scale represents an important linkage between urban and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies. The second part of this work is devoted to the assessment of impacts of extreme temperatures across the European capital cities. In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and socioeconomic variables as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that all the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in di...

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High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

Cited by 28 publications

References 41 publications

Multi-model synthesis of future extreme temperature indices over Zambia

Multi-model synthesis of future extreme temperature indices over Zambia

Spatial Assessment of Urban Climate Change Vulnerability during Different Urbanization Phases

Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

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