Heterogeneity in the Determinants of Population Growth at the Local Level

Abstract

Formal modeling of local population growth has usually tended to focus on identifying patterns that are presumed to hold universally. However, as Glaeser, Ponzetto, and Tobio highlighted, these laws are reliable for long-term dynamics; but in some moments or for some places, the balance between the different factors may change, giving rise to different specific behaviors. In this article, we study local population growth in Spain with no intention of searching for universal patterns. Rather, we are interested in identifying how relevant the temporal and spatial heterogeneity may be, that is, to assess the even and uneven effects that population growth determinants can exert across time and space. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach applied in this article for two different decades, 1991–2001 and 2001–2011, captures the spatial heterogeneity. Results on the spatially differentiated population growth factors are compared with the global ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators for both decades. Essential factors in urban and regional economics such as size (initial population) or distance (either to the big cities or to the coast) can have different effects on population growth across both space and time, corresponding to the global estimated effects for some areas but diverging from these in others. Using GWR estimation procedures, we can identify changes in the sign or in the intensity of a factor’s effect across space, such that some factors could enhance population growth in one place but reduce it in another. Only after all spatially differentiated local effects have been analyzed and taken into consideration can appropriate national or regional policies be designed à la carte to promote, retain, or deter population growth.

Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain

“…; Glaeser & Shapiro ; Baley ; Gutiérrez et al . ), in combination with the studies of Lardiés () and Grafeneder‐Weissteiner and Prettner (). With this as our basis, we propose the four following hypotheses:

Hypothesis 2.

…”

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

“…Empirical evidence for re-urbanization has recently been documented in Europe [13][14][15][16], with inner cities re-attracting populations and suburbs experiencing demographic stability or moderate decline [17][18][19]. Together with the long-term demographic transitions and short-term effects of the 2007 economic recession, different factors were demonstrated to contribute to re-urbanization, depending on local conditions [20][21][22] that have determined spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates [23]. In these regards, drivers of re-urbanization include (i) rehabilitation and renewal of inner districts of central cities through re-development projects ameliorating the condition of housing, public spaces, and transportation; (ii) a (more or less) rapid decline in house prices; (iii) the rising cost of transportation from peri-urban areas to inner cities; (iv) changes in the economic structure with the expansion of high-tech, finance, and business sectors; and finally, (v) a generalized attitude toward urban lifestyles induced by demographic changes, including the increase of mono-nuclear families [24][25][26].…”

Internal Migration in Spain: Dealing with Multilateral Resistance and Nonlinearites

“…In the same vein, policies trying to ease the match between vacancies and labour skills, a problem that once again is more acute for foreigners, would be pertinent. We are referring to, for instance, training and active labour market policies to alleviate job‐skill mismatches (Gutiérrez‐Posada et al., ).…”

“… Although dealing with population growth in Spain rather than migration, Gutiérrez‐Posada et al. () is another paper deserving attention. It adopts a geographically weighted regression approach to confirm that important factors such as distance (either to the big cities or to the coast) and size (initial population) can have different effects on population growth across both space and time. …”