Background
Rising incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among persons living with HIV (PLWH) in San Diego County (SDC) was reported. In 2018, UCSD launched a micro-elimination initiative among PLWH, and in 2020 SDC launched an initiative to reduce HCV incidence by 80% across 2015-2030. We model the impact of observed treatment scale-up on HCV micro-elimination among PLWH in SDC.
Methods
A model of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) was calibrated to SDC. The model was additionally stratified by: age, gender, and HIV status. The model was calibrated to HCV viremia prevalence among PLWH in 2010, 2018, and 2021 (42.1%, 18.5%, 8.5%, respectively), and HCV seroprevalence among PWID aged 18-39, MSM, and MSM with HIV in 2015. We simulate treatment among PLWH, weighted by UCSD Owen Clinic (reaching 26% of HCV-infected PLWH) and non-UCSD treatment, calibrated to achieve the observed HCV viremia prevalence. We simulated HCV incidence with observed and further treatment scale-up (+/- risk reductions) among PLWH.
Results
Observed treatment scale-up from 2018-2021 will reduce HCV incidence among PLWH in SDC from a mean 429 infections/year in 2015 to 159 infections/year in 2030. County-wide scale-up to the maximum treatment rate achieved at UCSD Owen Clinic (in 2021) will reduce incidence by 69%, missing the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 unless accompanied by behavioral risk reductions.
Conclusions
As SDC progresses towards HCV micro-elimination among PLWH, a comprehensive treatment and risk reduction approach is necessary to reach 2030 targets.