Health impacts of fine particles under climate change mitigation, air quality control, and demographic change in India

Dimitrova, Asya; Marois, Guillaume; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Kc, Samir; Rafaj, Peter; Tonne, Cathryn

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d5

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Our results, taken together with the broader literature, indicate that targeted air pollution control policies would be needed in addition to ambitious climate action and improved socioeconomic development to address the public health burden of air pollution in India. 25 India has been identified as a global region with some of the largest health co-benefits of climate change mitigation due to air pollution and where savings from health co-benefits consistently outweigh mitigation costs. [26][27][28] Differences in scenarios and modeling assumptions make direct comparisons between our results and other studies challenging.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

Ingole¹,

Dimitrova²,

Sampedro³

et al. 2021

SSRN Journal

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Introduction The health impacts of global climate change mitigation will affect local populations differently. We aimed to quantify the local health impacts due to fine particles (PM 2.5 ) under the governance arrangements embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs1-5) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) in local populations of Mozambique, India, and Spain. Methods We simulated the SSP-RCP scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was linked to the TM5-FASST model to estimate PM 2.5 levels. PM 2.5 levels were calibrated with local measurements. We used comparative risk assessment methods to estimate attributable premature deaths due to PM 2.5 linking local population and mortality data with PM 2.5 -mortality relationships from the literature. We incorporated population projections under the SSPs in sensitivity analysis. Results PM 2.5 attributable burdens in 2050 differed across SSP-RCP scenarios, and scenariosensitivity varied across populations. Future attributable mortality burden of PM 2.5 was highly sensitive to assumptions about how populations will change according to SSP. SSPs reflecting high challenges for adaptation (SSPs 3 and 4) consistently resulted in the highest PM 2.5 attributable burdens mid-century. Discussion Our analysis of local PM 2.5 attributable premature deaths under SSP-RCP scenarios in three local populations highlights the importance of both socioeconomic development and climate policy in reducing the health burden from air pollution. Sensitivity of future PM 2.5 mortality burden to SSPs was particularly evident in low-and midlle-income country settings due either to high air pollution levels or dynamic populations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

Ingole¹,

Dimitrova²,

Sampedro³

et al. 2021

SSRN Journal

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“…In addition, 75% of GHG emissions from the transportation sector are from road transport [ 43 , 44 ]. About 99.9% of the Indian population resides in areas exceeding the air quality permissible limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO) [ 45 , 46 ]. The air quality studies in India projected the PM 2.5 concentration to increase, resulting in premature mortality by 2050 even under the business-as-usual scenario [ 42 , 47 – 52 ].…”

Section: Problems With the Current Transportation Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Urban Transportation Policies in India: A Review and Analysis

Verma

Vajjarapu²,

Subramanian

2021

Transp. in Dev. Econ.

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India’s rising population and vehicular ownership have led to problems such as traffic congestion, pollution, and road accidents. The transportation sector is a crucial player in the country’s economy, but at the same time, it is also a significant contributor to climate change. Since climate change is a global threat, most transportation policies eventually lead to solving the climate change problem to achieve sustainable transportation. Despite commitments from various countries, the carbon emissions are still to come down and require the implementation of ambitious policies. Globally, countries are increasingly putting more effort towards sustainable transportation through various policy initiatives, and so does India. Given the growing transport-related externalities, the policy stance of India towards urban transportation is also gradually shifting to a systems approach from supply-oriented to demand-oriented policies. This paper highlights the significant transportation problems faced in India and how the Government of India’s transportation sector policy interventions for cities have evolved since its independence. The challenges and gaps in the existing policies are discussed, and possible ways to frame the policies are presented. This study finds that most government policy initiatives are still to see the intended level of success. This is majorly due to lack of monitoring, complex institutional capacities and urban governance, irregular zoning of land and inefficient comprehensive development and mobility plans.

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“…Previous studies have shown that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with climate change mitigation targets can bring substantial AAP improvements and health benefits in India, socalled co-benefits (West et al 2013, Silva et al 2016, Chowdhury et al 2018, Markandya et al 2018, Vandyck et al 2018, Sampedro et al 2020, and even more so when combined with stricter national measures for air quality control (Dimitrova et al 2021). However, scenario analysis from six different integrated assessment models (IAMs), which quantified the interactions between climate change mitigation and energy access, suggest that stringent climate policy might significantly slow down the transition to clean cooking fuels by affecting energy prices (McCollum et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the impact of air pollution on child stunting in India—synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation, ambient air quality control, and clean cooking access

Dimitrova

Marois²,

Kiesewetter³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Many children in India face the double burden of high exposure to ambient (AAP) and household air pollution (HAP), both of which can affect their linear growth. Although climate change mitigation is expected to decrease AAP, climate policies could increase the cost of clean cooking fuels. Here, we develop a static microsimulation model to project the air pollution-related burden of child stunting in India up to 2050 under four scenarios combining climate change mitigation (2°C target) with national policies for AAP control and subsidised access to clean cooking. We link data from a nationally representative household survey, satellite-based estimates of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), multi-dimensional demographic projection and PM2.5 and clean cooking access projections from an integrated assessment model. We find that the positive effects on child linear growth from reductions in AAP under the 2°C Paris Agreement target could be fully offset by the negative effects of climate change mitigation through reduced clean cooking access. Targeted AAP control or subsidised access to clean cooking could shift this trade-off to result in net benefits of 2.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.4, 4.2) or 6.5 (UI: 6.3, 6.9) million cumulative prevented cases of child stunting between 2020-50 compared to business-as-usual. Implementation of integrated climate, air quality, and energy access interventions has a synergistic impact, reducing cumulative number of stunted children by 12.1 (UI: 10.7, 13.7) million compared to business-as-usual, with the largest health benefits experienced by the most disadvantaged children and geographic regions. Findings underscore the importance of complementing climate change mitigation efforts with targeted air quality and energy access policies to concurrently deliver on carbon mitigation, health and air pollution and energy poverty reduction goals in India.

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Health impacts of fine particles under climate change mitigation, air quality control, and demographic change in India

Cited by 11 publications

References 24 publications

Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

Local Mortality Impacts Due to Future Air Pollution Under Climate Change Scenarios

Evolution of Urban Transportation Policies in India: A Review and Analysis

Projecting the impact of air pollution on child stunting in India—synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation, ambient air quality control, and clean cooking access

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