Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

Abstract

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long's (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.

Inter-regional migration in Indonesia: a micro approach

“…In the case of Indonesia, Jakarta is known for its relatively low air quality, congestion, and high density. A study by Wajdi et al (2015) showed that Jakarta had larger outflows to than corresponding inflows from Bodetabek (a metro area surrounding Jakarta), indicating a preference for low-density locations over Jakarta.…”

“…In terms of the migration-development relationship, some studies (see for example Wajdi et al 2015;World Bank 2012) have shown that migration is directed towards more developed regions; that is, metropolitan areas in Java. The World Bank (2012) utilised GDP divided by the size of the urban land area to measure the economic density of a region and showed that the metropolitan areas in Java have a high economic density as a further evidence of the gap in economic development.…”

“…From a macro perspective, the movement of people to Java Island was associated with the attractiveness of metropolitan areas in Java Island (Wajdi et al 2015). Wajdi et al (2015) used Long's (1985) framework of population redistribution phases and focused on macro level migration flows rather than the micro-level behaviour of individuals.…”

“…Wajdi et al (2015) used Long's (1985) framework of population redistribution phases and focused on macro level migration flows rather than the micro-level behaviour of individuals. According to Greenwood (1997), the inclusion of micro factors in macro models of migration is not appropriate.…”

Unemployment and vacancy flows in spatial labour market matching at the regional level. The case of a transition country

“…These factors may prevent workers from migrating on a large scale. The presence of a more attractive labour force can attract more investment, which may in turn reinforce and prolong development disparities between regions (e.g., Kunz, 2012;Wajdi, Adioetomo, & Mulder, 2017). Commuting behaviour (interregional spatial mobility) seems to provide an intermediate solution, especially if developed regions with low unemployment rates are located next to regions with high unemployment rates (Clemente, Larramona, & Olmos, 2016;Kosfeld, 2007;Rijnks, Koster, & McCann, 2016).…”