Global Risk Assessment Of The Effect Of Climate Change On Selected Causes Of Death In 2030s And 2050s

Kovats, Sari; Hales, Simon; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Rocklöv, Joacim; Honda, Yasushi; Lloyd, Simon J

doi:10.1289/isee.2015.2015-1204

Cited by 66 publications

(36 citation statements)

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“…This result is consistent with the findings from previous global projections of diarrhoeal mortality in children in which poor socioeconomic growth was found to slow down the reductions. 15 We also found that a future with a warmer climate might have higher enteric infection mortality compared with a future in which there is less warming. 40,41 Our projections suggest that temperature-related excess deaths will mainly be caused by Shigella, Cryptosporidium, and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 50%

“…We estimated the annual number of temperatureattributable enteric infection deaths from the baseline enteric infection mortality rates using the product of temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivity as follows: 15 where d is the temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality, D is the baseline enteric infection mortality rates derived from the first stage, P is the population, β is the pathogen-specific mortality change per 1°C increase in temperature, and T is the annual mean temperature.…”

Section: Temperature-attributable Enteric Infection Mortality Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…24 We assumed that the shortterm temperature-morbidity associations were applicable to annual-level mortality outcomes. 15 The annual temperature anomaly was calculated by subtracting the mean near surface air temperature during 1976-2005 from the projected annual near surface air temperatures during 2006-99 with use of 0•5° × 0•5° grid cells. Near surface air temperature data were obtained from ISIMIP2b, 32 and they corresponded to the downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simula tions from four global climate models (GCMs), namely GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5.…”

Section: Temperature-attributable Enteric Infection Mortality Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…14 Using this previous approach, the number of global temperature-related excess deaths was predicted to be in the range of 21 000-68 000 in 2030, but to slightly decrease to a value in the range of 15 000-49 000 by 2050. 15 Similarly, temperature-related infectious gastro enteritis cases in Japan were projected to decline by 0•8-9•1% in 2090-99, compared with the amount in 2010-19, with the greatest reduction occurring in a future with high radiative forcing (ie, a large change in global energy balance brought about by forcing agents like greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change). 16 This net reduction was attributed to a probable diminishing of cold-related morbidity that outweighed the heat-related increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Chua

Huber

et al. 2021

The Lancet Planetary Health

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Background Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change.Methods In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities.Findings We estimated that in the period 2080-95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441-7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760-100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.Interpretation Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 50%

Section: Temperature-attributable Enteric Infection Mortality Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Temperature-attributable Enteric Infection Mortality Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Chua

Huber

et al. 2021

The Lancet Planetary Health

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“…36 The World Health Organization estimates an additional 48 000 deaths per year from diarrheal diseases in children <15 years old by 2030. 37 The re-emergence of Chikungunya (with its expansion into the western hemisphere) has been linked to changing climates in Southeast Asia. 38 Likewise, warmer climates are thought to have contributed to the Zika virus pandemic, with studies detailing the effect of warmer temperatures on the range, life cycle, and feeding patterns of Aedes aegypti mosquitos.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Global Child Health

Philipsborn

Chan

2018

Pediatrics

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Climate change threatens to reverse the gains in global child health and the reductions in global child mortality made over the past 25 years. There is broad recognition that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are causing climate change. 1, 2 The problem of climate change transcends geopolitical boundaries and will have extensive impacts on child health and security (Fig 1). 3 With implications for all of humanity, climate change will disproportionately affect children and the poor, magnifying existing disparities in social determinates of health. 4, 5

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Evaluation of the impact of heat stress on the occurrence of occupational injuries: Meta‐analysis of observational studies

Binazzi

Levi²,

Bonafede

et al. 2019

American J Industrial Med

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Background Growing evidence indicates that the exposure to high heat levels in the workplace results in health problems in workers. A meta‐analysis was carried out to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of heat exposure on the risk of occupational injuries. Methods A search strategy was conducted to retrieve studies on the effects of climate change on occupational injury risk. Among the 406 identified, 5 time‐series and 3 case‐crossover studies were selected for meta‐analysis. Results Pooled risk estimates for time‐series and case‐crossover studies combined, and then separated, were 1.005 (95%CI: 1.001‐1009), 1.002 (95%CI: 0.998‐1.005), and 1.014 (95%CI: 1.012‐1.017), respectively. Subgroup analyses found increased risks (not statistically significant) for male gender, age <25 years and agriculture. Conclusions The present findings can orient further research to assess the effects of heat at workplace and consequently to establish better health policies for managing such exposure in at‐risk regions.

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Global Risk Assessment Of The Effect Of Climate Change On Selected Causes Of Death In 2030s And 2050s

Cited by 66 publications

References 0 publications

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Climate Change and Global Child Health

Evaluation of the impact of heat stress on the occurrence of occupational injuries: Meta‐analysis of observational studies

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