Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development

No mining activities, no environmental impacts? Assessing the carbon footprint of metal requirements induced by the consumption of a country with almost no mines

“…Similar tendencies have been observed in studies dedicated to some specific metals, such as iron (whose projected demand has been calculated as three to four times higher in 2050 compared to 2010) or copper (Schipper et al, 2018). In particular, one potential cause of this increasing consumption could be the worldwide energetic transition requiring the development of renewable energy technologies (Vidal, Goffe and Arndt, 2013;World Bank Group and EGPS, 2017;Månberger and Stenqvist, 2018). Overall, economic growth leads to an even more important growth in metal footprint (Burke, 2018).…”

Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios

“…A range of variables affect the results, including the installed capacity and technology type in the energy scenario; the assumed market demand of technology types (e.g., type of battery or solar panel); and the material intensity assumptions. The projected future demand for lithium is higher than in previous studies, and that for cobalt is similar or higher (Månberger and Stenqvist 2018;Watari et al 2018;Valero et al 2018;Watari et al 2018), as shown in Table 11.5. This is primarily attributable to the ambitious renewable energy scenario used in this study, which includes achieving a 100% renewable transport system by 2050, whereas the other studies have still included a large share of gasoline-powered cars in 2050.…”

“…For example, Mohr et al (2012) developed commodityfocused supply projections for lithium, with an emphasis on the origins and locations of available lithium deposits over time, which are contrasted with a simple demand function. Other studies have placed more emphasis on demand scenarios, either for a specific geographic location, such as Germany (Viebahn et al 2015) or globally (Valero et al 2018;Watari et al 2018), and some have explored the role of technology mixes and material substitution in detail (Månberger and Stenqvist 2018).…”

Enough Metals? Resource Constraints to Supply a Fully Renewable Energy System

“…The number of metals for which the range of uncertainty is large increases slightly from reserves to resources, which was expected, but remains small. This shows that the determining factor for depletion horizons is more how renewable energy sources are converted into useful energy, or the mix of RE technologies, rather than the energy scenarios themselves [64]. Our results may therefore prove particularly relevant in steering future applied research and development in line with material constraints over the medium and long term [65].…”