Geographical structures and the cholera epidemic in modern Japan: Fukushima prefecture in 1882 and 1895

Abstract

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Disease diffusion patterns can provide clues for understanding geographical change. Fukushima, a rural prefecture in northeast Japan, was chosen for a case study of the late nineteenth century cholera epidemic that occurred in that country. Two volumes of <it>Cholera Ryu-ko Kiji (Cholera Epidemic Report)</it>, published by the prefectural government in 1882 and 1895, provide valuable records for analyzing and modelling diffusion. Text descriptions and numerical evidence culled from the reports were incorporated into a temporal-spatial study framework using geographic information system (GIS) and geo-statistical techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Changes in diffusion patterns between 1882 and 1895 reflect improvements in the Fukushima transportation system and growth in social-economic networks. The data reveal different diffusion systems in separate regions in which residents of Fukushima and neighboring prefectures interacted. Our model also shows that an area in the prefecture's northern interior was dominated by a mix of diffusion processes (contagious and hierarchical), that the southern coastal region was affected by a contagious process, and that other infected areas experienced relocation diffusion.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In addition to enhancing our understanding of epidemics, the spatial-temporal patterns of cholera diffusion offer opportunities for studying regional change in modern Japan. By highlighting the dynamics of regional reorganization, our findings can be used to better understand the formation of an urban hierarchy in late nineteenth century Japan.</p

Geographical Perspectives on Epidemic Transmission of Cholera in Haiti, October 2010 Through March 2013

“…In addition to atlas-based treatments of pandemic wave transmission (May 1951;Cliff, Haggett, and Smallman-Raynor 2004, 25-32), geographers have examined the spatial dimensions of nineteenth and early twentieth century cholera epidemics in, among other countries, Japan (Kuo and Fukui 2007), Russia (Patterson 1994), the United Kingdom (Cliff and Haggett 1988, 2-61) and the United States (Pyle 1969). Other geographical studies have investigated the spread of cholera in relation to past conflicts (Smallman-Raynor and Cliff 1998a, 1998b, 2004, while social constructions of the disease in the nineteenth century have also been explored (Jackson 2013).…”

Cholera and Spatial Epidemiology

“…However, few have been applied in cholera studies. Kuo and Fukui (2007) have used the inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation technique to map the temporal features of cholera in the Fukushima prefecture Japan. Ali et al (2002) used kriging to interpolate and map the spatial risk of cholera in Bangladesh at regularly space interval.…”

“…Ackers et al (1998) used Pearson correlation coefficient to determine the correlation between cholera incidence rates and socioeconomic and environmental risk factors in Latin America. Kuo and Fukui (2007) Geographical data are correlated in space; therefore, data in close geographical proximity is more likely to be influenced by similar ecological factors and therefore affected in a similar way, i.e. spatial autocorrelation.…”

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space‐time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi, Ghana

“…Classical linear regression approaches, where the response variable is assumed to be Gaussian distributed with the covariates acting linearly on the response, have been used to model the diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases (K uo and F ukui , 2007; T revelyan , S mallman ‐R aynor and C liff , 2005). Such diffusion models assume a strictly linear relationship between the dependent variable and the predictor variables, thereby ignoring the possible nonlinear and spatial effects of the predictor variables.…”