Geographical peculiarities of the mortality risk of the population of Sumy region from cardiovascular diseases

Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main group of diseases from which the population of Sumy region suffers. They have not only high rates of primary morbidity and prevalence, but also play the leading role among the causes of mortality in the region. The aim of the article is clarification of the geographical features of mortality of the population of Sumy region from diseases of the circulatory system. In 2018 compared to 2012 the mortality of the general population in Sumy region from this class of nosology decreased by 1.17%, although among the able-bodied population it grew by 1.94%. The geographicaldifferences of mortality (including separately the group of able-bodied population) from various CVDs: coronary heart disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, cerebral strokes and strokes with hypertension, were established. For determining the regional features of mortality of the population from cardiovascular diseases we used the integrated indicator «disease mortality risk assessment». This indicator takes into account the relationship between the primary morbidity, prevalence of diseases and the causes of mortality and makes it possible to assess the state of health of the population in terms of CVDs. It was found that the inhabitants of Sumy, Romny, Nedryhailiv, Putyvl’ and Lypova Dolyna districts, where the highest integrated indicator value was observed , have a high risk of dying from diseases of the cardiovascular system,. At the same time for the city of Sumy, Bilopillia and Krasnopillia districts, a low level of the mortality risk from CVDs is characteristic. Among the able-bodied population of Sumy region, the inhabitants of Seredyna-Buda and Yampil’ districts are at the highest risk of mortality from CVDs. A forecast of the mortality of the population of Sumy region before 2023 was made. The baseline scenario showed a decrease of mortality from CVDs by 2.1 %. From the optimistic forecast (lower 95% confidence bound) the mortality rate from CVDs for 2023 will fall by 19.4%, while the pessimistic forecast (upper 95% confidence bound) shows an increase in the mortality rate by 13.3 %. As a result of ranking the values of the integrated indicator of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, it was found that in the first place is the risk of dying from a stroke, in the second place – from cerebrovascular diseases, and in third place – from strokes with hypertension. Next are the risks of dying from coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction. The results of the study can be used by local authorities to prevent the growth of morbidity and mortality from diseases of this nosological class, as well as for development of preventive measures and stabilization of the health status of the population of Sumy region.

Using Trend Models for Analysis and Forecasting Basic Demographic Indicators (case study of Sumy Region, Ukraine)

“…We should point out that since 1980, a natural decrease in the population has been recorded in Sumy region. It should be mentioned that among the urban population, the natural population decline began only in 1995 (-4.1‰), while in rural areas this phenomenon began as early as 1970 and then it was -0.9‰ (Kornus, 2009). As the forecast shows, this tendency will remain unchanged in the future.…”

“…The birth rate is one of the main demographic indicators that directly affect the demographic situation. In demographic policy, fertility is given a special place, because the prospects for demographic dynamics, changes in the population, its composition and the future of Ukraine depend on it (Kornus, 2009). In Sumy region the dynamics of the birth rate has had an oscillatory tendency over the past 30 years.…”

Tropical nights (1976–2019) as an indicator of climate change in Ukraine

“…When there are these nights, it is more difficult for the human body to cool down, especially for sick or elderly people. So, the growth of amount of the tropical nights can lead to an increase of population morbidity and mortality rate especially in а regions where there is a large percentage of the old-age population [13].There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality from high temperatures over a wide range of locations [12]. This impacts the health sector.…”

Informational and synergetic component of human-geographical research in the scientific heritage of Kostiantyn Niemets

“…Костянтин Аркадійович у розвитку науки та наукових поглядів вбачав сенс свого життя. Однією з перших робіт, що виконана та захищена під керівництвом Костянтина Аркадійовича, була дисертаційна робота Олесі Корнус «Територіальна організація системи обслуговування населення Сумської області та шляхи вдосконалення» у 2009 році [12]. Робота виконана в ключі наукових поглядів та ідей Харківської суспільногеографічної школи, одним із фундатором якої був Костянтин Аркадійович.…”