Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China

Li, Fulin; Yao, Ning; Li, Yang; Liu, De Li; Wang, Bin; Ayantobo, Olusola O.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.019

Cited by 71 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The most significant warming was concentrated in the west and southeast of the HRB, which means that mountainous and populous areas are more vulnerable to climate change than other areas [19,37]. The variation trends of temperature extremes were consistent with the previous results [16,31,33] which projected extreme temperature change over China by using downscaled results from multi-models. However, due to the internal features, the rate of changes in varied regions may differentiate from one another remarkably.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…A bias correction and uncertainty test for this method, carried out by Liu and Zuo [40], showed that the observed daily, monthly, and annual climate variables can be reproduced well by the downscaling model. The NWAI-WG downscaling procedure has been used in many studies in different regions and has been proven to be efficient at correcting the bias of GCM data and simulating future climate changes [5,16,17,41]. In short, the first step of this method is spatial downscaling.…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, the mixing of moist warm air and dry cold air originating from northern China releases excessive torrential rains in this basin. The spatiotemporal changes of extreme temperature indices may have many impacts on agricultural production, such as variety adaptability, the shifting of cultivation, and crop yields in different climatic zones in China [16]. He, et al [17] predicted rice heat stress indices in southern China using the statistical downscaling method with 28 GCMs from 2061 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and they found that the projected heat stress frequency in rice-growing areas increased to a growing trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

et al. 2020

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Estimating the changes in the spatial–temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events under future climate scenarios is critical to provide reference information to help mitigate climate change. In this study, we analyzed 16 extreme temperature indices calculated based on downscaled data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that were obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the Han River Basin (HRB). The results indicate that the downscaled data from 28 GCMs reproduced a consistent sign of recent trends for all extreme temperature indices except the DTR for the historical period (1961–2013). We found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices (i.e., TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU, TR, and WSDI) and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices (i.e., TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, FD, ID) under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. Spatially, great changes in warm extremes will occur in the west and southeast of the HRB in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will impact the eco-environment and agricultural production. Our findings will help regional managers adopt countermeasures and strategies to adapt to future climate change, especially extreme weather events.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

et al. 2020

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“…Continuous wavelet analysis is used in this paper to study and compare the periodicity of different droughts. For details on the procedures for applying continuous wavelet analysis, we refer readers to Biswas and Si [55], Li et al [56], and Biswas [57].…”

Section: Periodical Characteristics Based On Wavelet Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

National-Scale Variation and Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Droughts in China

Yao

Zhao

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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The regional and national scales variation and propagation characteristics of different types of droughts are critical for improving drought resilience, while information is limited in China. The objective of this research was to investigate the evolution and propagation characteristics of three types of droughts using standardized indices at multi-timescales in different sub-regions of China. The indices included Standardized Precipitation/Soil Moisture/Runoff Index (SPI/SSI/SRI) using the optimal probability density function, representing meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts based on precipitation, soil water storage, and baseflow-groundwater runoff, respectively. Wavelet analysis was used to reveal their periodical characteristics. Modified Mann-Kendall trend test was used to compare the trend among drought indices. Correlation coefficients between SPI and SSI/SRI were calculated to identify the time-lags of SPI with SSI and SRI. In general, droughts indicated by SPI agreed well with the historical drought events at different sub-regions. The main periods of SSI were closer to SPI than SRI, indicating stronger connections of agricultural drought with meteorological drought. A weaker connection between meteorological and agricultural/hydrological droughts at shorter timescales was observed in northwestern arid and semi-arid regions. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural or hydrological droughts were well denoted by the lagged time (months) from SPI to SSI or SRI at a timescale ranged from 0 (mostly located in south China) to 5 months (mostly located in northeastern China) for 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, or 24-month timescale; this was a new finding for China. The methods of wavelet combining trend test and Pearson coefficient showed meaningful power for revealing the drought propagation characteristics and the obtained results can be a good reference for other regions of the world since this study compared different climate zones from arid to humid conditions. The study provides crucial information and guidance to develop drought management strategies at regional to national scale and their critical time of action.

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“…China is the third largest country by area in the world with a total land area of 9,597,000 km 2 . China has a complicated geomorphology and a range of landscapes like water farmland, forests, mountains, deserts, reservoirs, water bodies, glaciers, and frozen soils [16]. China is divided into seven sub-regions by the discrepancies in topography and climate [17]…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Soil Moisture Drought over China during 2008-2016

Suon¹,

Yi²,

Porn³

et al. 2019

JWARP

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Drought has been analyzed by various indices based on rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration or soil moisture data. Remoste-sensing based data has spatial continuity with certain resolution and is useful for drought monitor. The purpose of this study was to investigate quality used of grid relative soil moisture, the spatial and temporal variation of soi moisture, and soil moisture drought based on relative soil moisture over China during 2008-2016. The results show that the relative soil moisture data set can reflect the spatial characteristics of the development of drought in China during 2008-2016. From the spatial distribution analysis, the northwest to northeast, south part of China, and other major arid areas, the performance is particularly evident. The results show that the use of CLDAS V1.0 real-time products, access to time and space continuous soil relative humidity products, can achieve the drought in China real-time monitoring.

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Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China

Cited by 71 publications

References 41 publications

Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

National-Scale Variation and Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Droughts in China

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Soil Moisture Drought over China during 2008-2016

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