Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the subbasin’s potable water supply demand forecast from 2023 to 2050 under various scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. The variability of the climate and the resulting problems with urbanization threaten the availability of water resources, especially in less developed countries like Ethiopia. Thus, the main objective of this study is showing the necessary to determine the amount of water needed in advance, in order to comply with the availability of water resources within a specified future period under different scenarios. Our indicator-based approach used a multicriteria decision-making technique. Accordingly, several important variables were considered, including climatological, anthropological, demographic, socioeconomic, and economic variables, in addition to water engineering-related factors (e.g. Water losses). The method also considered a number of factors, such as unexpected and extreme temperature changes, and forecasting factors studied by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy. The projected population in the subbasin is estimated at 2.52 million, so the total projected water supply demand i.e., for domestic, non-domestic, industrial, commercial, public, and institutional is approximately 126.53 MCM/yr by 2050. Our results revealed how changes in both climatic and socioeconomic factors strongly influence future water resource system performance, and this will help the water services provider better prioritize the refurbishment of existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, and more importantly, manage the subbasin effectively by introducing resilient adaptation options.